Crude Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast October 2012

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Outlook and Recommendation

Crude Oil ended the month at 92.03 after bouncing back from falling to the 89 price range. Global supplies are ample. The Saudi’s continue to pump excess capacity and try to talk down prices. Global growth has been revised downwards and demand continues to decline. Threats accelerated from the Obama Administration to release the strategic reserves as global eco data and more importantly eco data from the US and China, show continued declines in production and manufacturing.

Highest: 100.42

Lowest: 88.97

Difference: 11.45

Average: 94.94

Change %: -4.99

 Oil capped the biggest quarterly increase this year on concern that escalating West Asia tension will disrupt supplies and as gasoline surged to a five-month high. Crude gained 0.4% as the White House said President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are in “full agreement” on preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

Crude Oil Inventory (EIA) report:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 365.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

October Major Economic Events

Economic events for the month of October affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Oct 1

 8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

49.5

49.5

 

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

50.0

49.6

Oct 2

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

50.0

49.0

Oct 3

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

53.1

53.7

 

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

148K

201K

 

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.4

53.7

Oct 4

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

375B

375B

 

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

Tentative

GBP

MPC Rate Statement

   
 

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

 

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

   
 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

371K

359K

 

18:00

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

   

Oct 5

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

418.4B

 

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

111K

96K

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.1%

Oct 8

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

 

0.0%

Oct 9

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

3.2%

Oct 11

All Day

ALL

G7 Meetings

   
 

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

 

-42.0B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   

Oct 12

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

 

1.7%

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

   

Oct 15

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

0.8%

 

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.9%

Oct 16

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

 

2.5%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

   
 

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

   
 

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

   

Oct 17

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

   
 

8:30

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

   

Oct 18

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

   
 

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

   
 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

   

Oct 19

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

   

Oct 24

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

   
 

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

   
 

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

   
 

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

   
 

18:15

USD

FOMC Statement

   

Oct 25

12:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

   
 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

   

Oct 26

8:30

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

   
 

12:30

USD

Advance GDP q/q

 

1.3%

Oct 30

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

   

Oct 31

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

   

 

 

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