Crude Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast October 2012

Posted October 01, 2012 7:30 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Outlook and Recommendation

Crude Oil ended the month at 92.03 after bouncing back from falling to the 89 price range. Global supplies are ample. The Saudi’s continue to pump excess capacity and try to talk down prices. Global growth has been revised downwards and demand continues to decline. Threats accelerated from the Obama Administration to release the strategic reserves as global eco data and more importantly eco data from the US and China, show continued declines in production and manufacturing.

Highest: 100.42	Lowest: 88.97	Difference: 11.45	Average: 94.94	Change %: -4.99

Oil capped the biggest quarterly increase this year on concern that escalating West Asia tension will disrupt supplies and as gasoline surged to a five-month high. Crude gained 0.4% as the White House said President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are in “full agreement” on preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

Crude Oil Inventory (EIA) report:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 365.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

October Major Economic Events

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule:
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule:
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
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Heating Oil & Propane Update (-)
Heating Oil, Propane Residential and Wholesale Price Data
Release Schedule:
Weekly Coal Production
Release Schedule:
Weekly NYMEX Coal Futures
Release Schedule:
Coal News & Markets
Release Schedule:
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule:
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule:

Economic events for the month of October affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct 1	8:30	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	49.5	49.5
	14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	50.0	49.6
Oct 2	8:30	GBP	Construction PMI	50.0	49.0
Oct 3	8:30	GBP	Services PMI	53.1	53.7
	12:15	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	148K	201K
	14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	53.4	53.7
Oct 4	11:00	GBP	Asset Purchase Facility	375B	375B
	11:00	GBP	Official Bank Rate	0.50%	0.50%
	Tentative	GBP	MPC Rate Statement
	11:45	EUR	Minimum Bid Rate	0.75%	0.75%
	12:30	EUR	ECB Press Conference
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	371K	359K
	18:00	USD	FOMC Meeting Minutes
Oct 5	7:00	CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves		418.4B
	12:30	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	111K	96K
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.2%	8.1%
Oct 8	7:15	CHF	CPI m/m		0.0%
Oct 9	8:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m		3.2%
Oct 11	All Day	ALL	G7 Meetings
	12:30	USD	Trade Balance		-42.0B
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
Oct 12	12:30	USD	PPI m/m		1.7%
	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Oct 15	12:30	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m		0.8%
	12:30	USD	Retail Sales m/m		0.9%
Oct 16	8:30	GBP	CPI y/y		2.5%
	8:30	GBP	PPI Input m/m
	9:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment
	12:30	USD	Core CPI m/m
Oct 17	8:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change
	8:30	GBP	MPC Meeting Minutes
Oct 18	8:30	GBP	Public Sector Net Borrowing
	8:30	GBP	Retail Sales m/m
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Oct 19	14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales
Oct 24	7:00	EUR	French Flash Manufacturing PMI
	7:30	EUR	German Flash Manufacturing PMI
	8:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate
	14:00	USD	New Home Sales
	18:15	USD	FOMC Statement
Oct 25	12:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
	14:00	USD	Pending Home Sales m/m
Oct 26	8:30	GBP	Prelim GDP q/q
	12:30	USD	Advance GDP q/q		1.3%
Oct 30	14:00	USD	CB Consumer Confidence
Oct 31	12:15	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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