Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 23-27, 2012, Forecast
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Introduction: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.
Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention
Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil has a long story to tell. Starting with a report this week that showed the OPEC has just about exhausted their spare capacity. The EIA inventory showed a third week of declines although the decline was not as much as expected by markets. Reports showed inventories fell 0.8m barrels when forecast was over a million barrel reduction.
Jul 20, 2012
Jul 19, 2012
Jul 18, 2012
Jul 17, 2012
Jul 16, 2012
The price increase has been on the back of global tension, between the Isreali’s and Iran over a terrorist attack in Bulgaria that has claimed 6 lives thus far and growing tensions between Syria and Turkey.
Iran also continues their rhetoric over the Straits of Hormuz and this week a boat was fired upon.
“An embarked security team aboard a US navy vessel fired upon a small motor vessel after it disregarded warnings and rapidly approached the US ship near Jebel Ali,” the State Department statement said. Jebel Ali is a port city in the UAE.
“The US crew repeatedly attempted to warn the vessel’s operators to turn away from their deliberate approach,” the statement said. “When those efforts failed to deter the approaching vessel, the security team on the Rappahannock fired rounds from a .50-calibre machine gun.”
Crude is expected to decline as soon as tensions ease.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 16 – 20 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Core CPI y/y
Core Retail Sales m/m
Empire State Manufacturing Index
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Core CPI m/m
TIC Long-Term Purchases
Capacity Utilization Rate
Industrial Production m/m
Claimant Count Change
ZEW Economic Expectations
Crude Oil Inventories
Retail Sales m/m
Existing Home Sales
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
German PPI m/m
Public Sector Net Borrowing
Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011
Average: 88.78 over this period
Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
- Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
- Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
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