Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

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Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

Introduction:  Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.

Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention

Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil remained weak but was able to regain some momentum, as positive eco data from the US and China helped increase future demands. The pair ended the week above 86.00 adding a bit over a dollar for the week. EIA inventories spooked trader’s midweek reporting increased inventory.

Crude futures had tumbled to three-month low levels on Monday as the market fretted over uncertainty over the crucial race between US President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The market swung higher on Tuesday, soaring by more than $3 in line with Wall Street gains and the weaker dollar, as Americans headed to the polls.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Nov 09, 2012

86.06

85.03

86.76

84.14

1.22%

Nov 08, 2012

85.03

84.68

85.70

84.26

0.40%

Nov 07, 2012

84.69

88.25

88.80

84.09

-4.04%

Nov 06, 2012

88.25

85.77

89.20

85.43

2.87%

Nov 05, 2012

85.79

84.78

85.89

84.36

1.19%

But prices plunged on Wednesday, mirroring global equities, as traders worried about a looming “fiscal cliff” in the United States after Obama’s re-election and gloomy EU economic forecasts. Sentiment was also hammered after the European Union lowered its economic forecasts for the eurozone, to a contraction of 0.4 percent this year and miniscule 0.1 percent growth in 2013.

In addition, the market was dented by profit-taking, the strong dollar and rising US crude inventories data that signaled weak demand in the world’s biggest oil consuming nation. On Thursday, crude futures eked out slender gains amid bargain-hunting after the sharp sell-off.

However, traders continue to worry that US political gridlock will prevent a compromise to avoid the “fiscal cliff” of automatic tax rises and spending cuts at the end of the year, which could potentially tip the US back into recession.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for November 5 – 9 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Nov. 05 

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change 

128.20K

90.50K

79.60K

 

GBP

Services PMI 

50.6

52.0

52.2

 

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

54.2

54.5

55.1

Nov. 06 

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate 

-17

-22

-17

 

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.7%

0.3%

-0.4%

 

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.7%

-0.6%

-0.5%

 

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

0.1%

0.3%

-1.2%

 

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.6%

-1.6%

-1.0%

 

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-3.3%

-0.5%

-0.8%

 

RUB

Russian CPI (MoM) 

0.5%

0.7%

0.6%

 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.5%

 

0.8%

Nov. 07

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.3%

0.3%

 

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.2%

 

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.8%

-0.5%

-0.4%

 

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.675%

 

1.700%

Nov. 08 

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B

375B

375B

 

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

0.75%

0.75%

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-41.5B

-45.0B

-43.8B

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

355K

370K

363K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3127K

3253K

3262K

Nov. 09 

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

1.9%

1.9%

 

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.8%

-2.7%

-3.6%

 

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.1%

0.3%

 

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.7%

20.6%

20.5%

 

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.6%

9.4%

9.2%

 

CNY

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

14.5%

14.0%

14.2%

 

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

 

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

 

GBP

Trade Balance 

-8.4B

-8.9B

-10.0B

 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.5%

0.0%

1.1%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

84.9

83.0

82.6

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest:   114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest:   67.17 on May 25, 2010

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Nov. 13

07:45

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

 

-0.1%

 

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.3%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.3%

2.2%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.4%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.5%

-1.2%

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-9.8

-11.5

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-114.0B

75.0B

Nov. 14

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

 

-0.3%

 

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.9%

1.7%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

 

-4.0K

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.9%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.6%

2.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.4%

2.3%

 Nov. 15

07:00

EUR

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

0.3%

 

07:00

EUR

German GDP (YoY) 

0.8%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.6%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.7%

2.5%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.5%

2.5%

 

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Nov 12 10:10 Slovakia

Nov 12 10:30 Germany

Nov 13 01:30 Japan

Nov 13 09:30 Holland

Nov 13 10:10 Greece

Nov 13 10:10 Italy

Nov 13 10:30 Belgium

Nov 13 15:30 UK

Nov 14 10:10 Italy

Nov 14 10:10 Sweden

Nov 14 10:30 Germany

Nov 14 10:30 Swiss

Nov 14 11:00 Norway

Nov 15 01:30 Japan

Nov 15 09:50 France

Nov 15 10:30 UK

Nov 15 10:50 France

Nov 15 16:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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