Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 13, 2012 9:41 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil climbed this week, from Monday’s open at 89.69 to end the week at 91.62. Tensions in the Middle East were the main source of price support. Syria and Turkey exchanged attacks this week with Turkey forcing a Syrian jet to land and be inspected in Turkey. Tensions continue to grow pressurizing oil.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Oct 12, 2012	91.62	92.48	92.61	91.17	-0.92%
Oct 11, 2012	92.47	91.26	92.92	91.11	1.33%
Oct 10, 2012	91.27	91.89	93.64	91.06	-0.67%
Oct 09, 2012	91.88	89.95	92.88	89.30	2.10%
Oct 08, 2012	89.99	89.69	90.02	88.21	0.35%

This week the IMF reduced global growth forecasts including most of Asia, with China, all of Europe and the US. The EIA and the International Energy agency reduced global demand forecast downwards as well as OPEC assuring the world that they would produce enough oil to offset any production or transportation problems. Oil is expected to decline and to fall rapidly.

The International Energy Agency now expects global demand for oil to grow by half a million barrels a day less than previously estimated through 2016.The agency also said that “a return to higher OPEC spare production capacity will be welcome news amid rising supply and demand risks.”

Traders took the update as an opportunity to cash in recent gains won on the back of Middle East tensions — particularly the conflict in Syria.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 8-12, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 08	CHF	CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	-0.8%	1.2%
Oct. 09	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-15%	-20%	-18%
	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	-0.5%	2.8%
	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-1.1%	-0.6%	3.1%
	GBP	Trade Balance	-9.8B	-8.5B	-7.3B
	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-1.2%	-1.1%	-0.8%
	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate	0.8%		0.1%
Oct. 10	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.700%		1.764%
Oct. 11	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%	2.1%
	EUR	French CPI (MoM)	-0.3%	0.1%	0.7%
	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	1.1%	0.7%	1.1%
	USD	Trade Balance	-44.2B	-44.0B	-42.5B
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	339K	370K	369K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3273K	3275K	3288K
Oct. 12	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.6%	-0.4%	0.6%
	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	PPI (MoM)	1.1%	0.7%	1.7%
	USD	PPI (YoY)	2.1%	1.8%	2.0%
	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.3%	2.5%	2.5%
	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	83.1	78.0	78.3
	USD	Federal Budget Balance	75.0B	42.0B	-191.0B

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 15	08:15	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.5%
	13:30	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.5%	0.8%
	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-5.0	-10.4
Oct. 16	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.1%	2.0%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.8%	1.4%
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.7%	2.7%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-16.0	-18.2
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.5%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.7%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		67.0B
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-1.2%
Oct. 17	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus		1.5%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-15.0K
Oct. 18	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.4%	-0.2%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.1%	2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia

Oct 15 10:00 Norway

Oct 16 08:30 Spain

Oct 16 09:10 Greece

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden

Oct 17 09:30 Germany

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal

Oct 17 10:00 Norway

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 08:30 Spain

Oct 18 08:50 France

Oct 18 09:30 UK

Oct 18 09:50 France

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 15:00 US

Oct 18 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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