Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

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Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil climbed this week, from Monday’s open at 89.69 to end the week at 91.62. Tensions in the Middle East were the main source of price support. Syria and Turkey exchanged attacks this week with Turkey forcing a Syrian jet to land and be inspected in Turkey. Tensions continue to grow pressurizing oil.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 12, 2012

91.62

92.48

92.61

91.17

-0.92%

Oct 11, 2012

92.47

91.26

92.92

91.11

1.33%

Oct 10, 2012

91.27

91.89

93.64

91.06

-0.67%

Oct 09, 2012

91.88

89.95

92.88

89.30

2.10%

Oct 08, 2012

89.99

89.69

90.02

88.21

0.35%

This week the IMF reduced global growth forecasts including most of Asia, with China, all of Europe and the US. The EIA and the International Energy agency reduced global demand forecast downwards as well as OPEC assuring the world that they would produce enough oil to offset any production or transportation problems. Oil is expected to decline and to fall rapidly.

The International Energy Agency now expects global demand for oil to grow by half a million barrels a day less than previously estimated through 2016.The agency also said that “a return to higher OPEC spare production capacity will be welcome news amid rising supply and demand risks.”

 Traders took the update as an opportunity to cash in recent gains won on the back of Middle East tensions — particularly the conflict in Syria.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.  

Major Economic Events for the week of October 8-12, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 08

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

0.3%

0.0%

 

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

-0.8%

1.2%

Oct. 09

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-15%

-20%

-18%

 

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

-0.5%

2.8%

 

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

-1.1%

-0.6%

3.1%

 

GBP

Trade Balance 

-9.8B

-8.5B

-7.3B

 

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-1.2%

-1.1%

-0.8%

 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.8%

 

0.1%

Oct. 10

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.700%

 

1.764%

Oct. 11

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0%

0.4%

 

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

2.1%

 

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

0.1%

0.7%

 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.1%

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.2B

-44.0B

-42.5B

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

339K

370K

369K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3273K

3275K

3288K

Oct. 12

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

-0.4%

0.6%

 

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.7%

 

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.1%

1.8%

2.0%

 

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.3%

2.5%

2.5%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.1

78.0

78.3

 

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

75.0B

42.0B

-191.0B

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest:   114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest:   67.17 on May 25, 2010

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 15

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

0.8%

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-5.0

-10.4

Oct. 16

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

2.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.1%

2.0%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.8%

1.4%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

2.7%

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-16.0

-18.2

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

67.0B

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

-1.2%

Oct. 17

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

 

1.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

 

-15.0K

 Oct. 18

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.1%

2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia 

Oct 15 10:00 Norway 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US

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