Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 20, 2012 8:46 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil dipped this week as global growth continued to decline and the IEA once again reduced forecasts for 2012 for crude consumption. The EIA surprised traders reporting much higher inventories than expected. Projections called for an increase of 1.5million barrels and print was 2.9million barrel increase. Crude closed the week at 90.51 and continues to be bearish

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Oct 19, 2012	90.51	92.48	93.49	90.25	-2.14%
Oct 18, 2012	92.48	92.41	92.98	91.13	0.08%
Oct 17, 2012	92.42	92.92	93.26	92.00	-0.54%
Oct 16, 2012	92.92	92.19	93.02	91.88	0.79%
Oct 15, 2012	92.19	91.55	92.61	90.28	0.72%

Tensions between Syria and Turkey subsided but still remain high and Iran, has agreed to come to the negotiating table, but no promises are made.

The US economic situation seems to be improving with better than expected housing, manufacturing and confidence reports, with both housing and the Philly index reporting exceptionally high.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 15-19, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 15	GBP	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	3.5%		-0.6%
	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.6%	1.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.8%	1.2%
	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-6.2	-4.5	-10.4
Oct. 16	GBP	Core CPI (YoY)	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%
	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%	2.5%
	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.2%	-0.1%	1.9%
	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-1.2%	-0.8%	1.1%
	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.7%	2.7%
	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-11.5	-15.0	-18.2
	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	-1.4	-1.1	-3.8
	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.6%	1.5%
	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.6%	0.5%	0.6%
	USD	CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%	1.7%
	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%	1.9%
	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	90.0B	45.3B	67.2B
	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.4%	0.2%	-1.4%
Oct. 17	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.7%	1.6%	1.6%
	GBP	Claimant Count Change	-4.0K	-1.0K	-14.2K
	USD	Building Permits	0.894M	0.810M	0.801M
	USD	Housing Starts	0.872M	0.770M	0.758M
Oct. 18	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.6%	0.4%	-0.1%
	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.5%	2.1%	2.5%
	EUR	Spanish 10-Year Obligation Auction	5.458%		5.666%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	388K	365K	342K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3252K	3275K	3281K
	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	5.7	1.0	-1.9
Oct. 19	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.75M	4.75M	4.83M

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 24	07:58	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	44.0	42.7
	08:28	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	48.0	47.4
	09:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	101.6	101.4
	09:00	EUR	German Current Assessment	109.7	110.3
	09:00	EUR	German Business Expectations	94.3	93.2
	11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders		-8
	15:00	USD	New Home Sales	385K	373K
Oct.26	07:00	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.9	5.9
	08:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicators	1.67	1.67

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 22 09:10 Norway

Oct 23 08:30 Spain

Oct 23 14:30 UK

Oct 23 17:00 US

Oct 24 09:10 Sweden

Oct 24 09:30 Germany

Oct 24 14:30 Sweden

Oct 24 15:30 Italy

Oct 24 16:30 US

Oct 25 00:30 Japan

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden

Oct 25 15:30 Italy

Oct 25 17:00 US

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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