Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

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Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil had an erratic week of trading, having a 4.00 drop in price on Wednesday and then regaining on Thursday to lose it again on Friday. The commodity ended the week at 89.92. The market fell as many traders cashed in some of their bumper gains from the previous day, when prices rebounded by up to $4 a barrel. Meanwhile the upbeat payrolls report in the United States — the world’s largest oil consumer — failed to dispel energy demand concerns.   Growth concerns remain the major concern and one average US jobs report cannot fix that.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 05, 2012

89.92

91.50

91.65

89.03

-1.71%

Oct 04, 2012

91.48

88.33

91.81

87.91

3.55%

Oct 03, 2012

88.34

91.66

91.83

87.71

-3.62%

Oct 02, 2012

91.66

92.42

92.92

91.58

-0.83%

Oct 01, 2012

92.43

91.50

93.33

91.28

1.01%

Turkey moved its forces to heightened alert and will be calling on NATO members to defend Turkey’s boarder with Syria after border towns in Turkey were bombed by Syria and Turkish citizens killed. Turkey can well defend itself, so Syria is crazy to be looking to start up with Syria unless Syria wants to drag Iran into this mess. Iran is reportedly moving soldiers to its border with Turkey so Middle East problems have clearly not gone away. They are simmering and will soon boil over. The tension is helping to support prices.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 1-5 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 01 

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY) 

5.9%

4.5%

2.9%

 

CHF

SVME PMI 

43.6

47.5

46.7

 

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI 

45.70

44.20

43.60

 

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

42.7

42.6

42.6

 

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

47.4

47.3

47.3

 

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

46.1

46.0

46.0

 

GBP

Manufacturing PMI 

48.4

49.3

49.5

 

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

51.5

49.7

49.6

 Oct. 02

GBP

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

-0.3%

1.1%

 

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change 

79.60K

 

38.20K

 Oct. 03

GBP

Services PMI 

52.2

53.1

53.7

 

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.1%

-0.1%

0.1%

 

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

162K

143K

189K

 

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

55.1

53.2

53.7

Oct. 04

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.4%

0.2%

-0.4%

 

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B

375B

375B

 

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

0.75%

0.75%

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

367K

370K

363K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3281K

3271K

3281K

Oct. 05

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-1.3%

-0.5%

0.3%

 

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.3%

0.2%

0.0%

 

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

114K

113K

142K

 

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

34.4

34.4

 

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

104K

130K

97K

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest:   114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest:   67.17 on May 25, 2010

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 08 

08:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.9%

1.3%

Oct. 09

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-20%

-19%

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

2.9%

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

-0.6%

3.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Trade Balance 

-8.5B

-7.2B

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-1.1%

-0.8%

 Oct. 11

07:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

 

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

 

0.7%

Oct. 12 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

0.6%

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 08 09:10 Norway 

Oct 08 15:30 Italy  

Oct 09 08:30 Holland 

Oct 09 09:30 UK 

Oct 09 14:30 UK 

Oct 09 17:00 US 

Oct 10 09:10 Italy  

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 10 09:30 Germany 

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss 

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 10 17:00 US 

Oct 11 09:10 Italy  

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 11 09:30 UK 

Oct 11 15:00 US 

Oct 11 17:00 US 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium 

 

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