Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 06, 2012 9:07 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil had an erratic week of trading, having a 4.00 drop in price on Wednesday and then regaining on Thursday to lose it again on Friday. The commodity ended the week at 89.92. The market fell as many traders cashed in some of their bumper gains from the previous day, when prices rebounded by up to $4 a barrel. Meanwhile the upbeat payrolls report in the United States — the world’s largest oil consumer — failed to dispel energy demand concerns. Growth concerns remain the major concern and one average US jobs report cannot fix that.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Oct 05, 2012	89.92	91.50	91.65	89.03	-1.71%
Oct 04, 2012	91.48	88.33	91.81	87.91	3.55%
Oct 03, 2012	88.34	91.66	91.83	87.71	-3.62%
Oct 02, 2012	91.66	92.42	92.92	91.58	-0.83%
Oct 01, 2012	92.43	91.50	93.33	91.28	1.01%

Turkey moved its forces to heightened alert and will be calling on NATO members to defend Turkey’s boarder with Syria after border towns in Turkey were bombed by Syria and Turkish citizens killed. Turkey can well defend itself, so Syria is crazy to be looking to start up with Syria unless Syria wants to drag Iran into this mess. Iran is reportedly moving soldiers to its border with Turkey so Middle East problems have clearly not gone away. They are simmering and will soon boil over. The tension is helping to support prices.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 1-5 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 01	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	5.9%	4.5%	2.9%
	CHF	SVME PMI	43.6	47.5	46.7
	EUR	Italian Manufacturing PMI	45.70	44.20	43.60
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	42.7	42.6	42.6
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	47.4	47.3	47.3
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	46.1	46.0	46.0
	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	48.4	49.3	49.5
	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	51.5	49.7	49.6
Oct. 02	GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM)	-0.4%	-0.3%	1.1%
	EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change	79.60K		38.20K
Oct. 03	GBP	Services PMI	52.2	53.1	53.7
	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	162K	143K	189K
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	55.1	53.2	53.7
Oct. 04	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	0.2%	-0.4%
	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B	375B
	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	367K	370K	363K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3281K	3271K	3281K
Oct. 05	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	-1.3%	-0.5%	0.3%
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	114K	113K	142K
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.4	34.4
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	104K	130K	97K

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 08	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)	0.3%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.9%	1.3%
Oct. 09	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-20%	-19%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	2.9%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-0.6%	3.2%
	09:30	GBP	Trade Balance	-8.5B	-7.2B
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-1.1%	-0.8%
Oct. 11	07:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%
	07:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)		0.7%
Oct. 12	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	0.6%

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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