Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 10-14, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction:  Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.

Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention

Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil  closed the week close to its opening, at 96.34 having opened this past Monday at 96.16. The commodity was unable to take advantage of the ECB program and the likelihood of FOMC stimulus, as the prices were already trading at highs, which have attracted the Obama administration and the possibility of the release of the Strategic Reserves.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 07, 2012

96.34

94.84

96.68

94.11

1.59%

Sep 06, 2012

94.83

95.78

97.71

94.55

-0.99%

Sep 05, 2012

95.78

95.37

96.03

94.28

0.44%

Sep 04, 2012

95.36

96.87

97.36

94.99

-1.55%

Sep 03, 2012

96.86

96.19

97.27

96.02

0.70%

Oil prices rose on Friday in volatile trading after a disappointing U.S. August jobs report weakened the dollar and bolstered expectations for stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve, even while denting the outlook for petroleum demand.

Brent and U.S. crude futures posted small weekly losses, after five straight weekly gains and a surge of more than 9 percent in August.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 96,000 new positions, the Labor Department said on Friday, below the forecasted rise of 125,000. While the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent in July, it was largely due to Americans giving up the search for employment.

Oil prices received a lift from expectations that the jobs report increases the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting next week will result in a third round of monetary stimulus, known as quantitative easing or QE3.

The possibility that strategic oil reserves may be released by the United States and other major oil consumer governments hemmed in oil prices, after U.S. government officials met oil market experts on Thursday as the White House considers the merits of another release.

While oil companies work to restore energy operations on the U.S. Gulf Coast after Hurricane Isaac, the government’s report on Wednesday showed domestic crude oil stockpiles, excluding the SPR, fell 7.43 million barrels in the week to Aug. 31.

U.S. regulators said 36.35 percent of daily oil production in U.S.-regulated areas of the Gulf of Mexico remained shut on Friday, an improvement of 6.63 percentage points from Thursday.

The threat that violence in the Middle East could escalate and disrupt flows of oil from the region persists.

A blast outside a mosque in Syria’s capital on Friday killed five security personnel and wounded others.

Britain’s Foreign Secretary William Hague urged the European Union to impose new sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program and Germany’s foreign minister later on Friday also said the EU should impose a new round of sanctions.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 3-7, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 03 

08:15

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY) 

3.2%

4.3%

3.3%

 

08:30

CHF

SVME PMI 

46.7

49.0

48.6

 

08:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI 

43.60

45.00

44.30

 

08:50

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.0

46.2

46.2

 

08:55

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

44.7

45.1

45.1

 

09:00

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

45.1

45.3

45.3

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI 

49.5

46.2

45.2

Sep. 04

06:45

CHF

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.1%

0.2%

0.5%

 

08:00

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change 

38.20K

 

-27.80K

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.6

50.0

49.8

 

15:40

GBP

Services PMI 

53.7

51.5

51.0

Sep. 05

08:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.1%

-0.5%

 

10:00

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

10:35

EUR

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.420%

 

1.420%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.2%

1.8%

1.6%

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.5%

1.5%

1.7%

Sep. 06 

08:00

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.4%

0.3%

-0.7%

 

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.5%

0.2%

-1.6%

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B

375B

375B

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

0.75%

0.75%

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

201K

140K

173K

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

365K

370K

377K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3322K

3315K

3328K

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.7

52.5

52.6

Sep. 07

06:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate 

2.9%

2.9%

2.9%

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

2.9%

1.5%

-2.4%

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

3.2%

2.0%

-2.9%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

2.0%

1.7%

0.4%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.4%

1.2%

-2.4%

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-0.8%

-2.8%

-3.8%

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.3%

0.2%

-0.4%

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

96K

125K

141K

 

13:30

USD

Unemployment Rate 

8.1%

8.3%

8.3%

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

34.5

34.4

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

103K

138K

162K

 

15:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.2%

 

0.3%

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest:   114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest:   67.17 on May 25, 2010

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
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