Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 17-21, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction:  Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.

Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention.Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil continues to march upwards breaking above the 100 price level in mid day trading Friday. This week’s inventory showed a surprising increase in stocks, while news from OPEC that global inventory was more than sufficient.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 14, 2012

98.99

98.14

100.42

98.14

0.86%

Sep 13, 2012

98.14

96.95

98.58

96.54

1.22%

Sep 12, 2012

96.96

96.86

98.06

96.68

0.09%

Sep 11, 2012

96.88

96.24

97.31

96.08

0.65%

Sep 10, 2012

96.25

96.31

96.61

95.41

-0.06%

 

The news that the Feds would launch QE3 pushed crude over the top, as stimulus will help increase demand and at the same time lowers the dollar making dollar denominated commodities more attractive.

Global markets are now hoping that China and Japan will jump on the bandwagon this week.

Geopolitical tensions continue to mounts after threats from Iran towards Israel surfaced again, along with the death of the US Ambassador to Libya. Libya has increased their production levels since the civil war and any tension or threat to production would inflate prices.

There are also new storms brewing in the Gulf region as we are in the heights of hurricane season in the Atlantic.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 10-14, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 11

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-19%

-22% 

-23% 

 

06:30

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.1%

-0.1% 

-0.1% 

 

09:30

GBP

Trade Balance 

-7.2B

-9.0B 

-10.1B 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-42.0B

-44.0B 

-41.9B 

 Sep. 12

06:30

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

0.7%

0.5% 

-0.4% 

 

07:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.3% 

0.3% 

 

07:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

2.0% 

2.0% 

 

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.5%

1.6% 

1.8% 

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

-15.0K

0.5K 

-13.6K 

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

-0.1% 

-0.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.7%

1.4% 

-0.7% 

 

18:00

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.764%

 

1.680% 

 Sep. 13

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.5%

-0.4% 

-0.3% 

 

08:30

CHF

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

0.00% 

0.00% 

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2% 

0.4% 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.7%

1.1% 

0.3% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

382K

370K 

367K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3283K

3318K 

3332K 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.4% 

0.5% 

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.5%

2.6% 

2.5% 

 

17:30

USD

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

0.25% 

0.25% 

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-191.0B

-155.0B 

-69.6B 

Sep. 14

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

2.6% 

2.6% 

 

10:00

EUR

Employment Change (QoQ) 

0.0%

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

1.7% 

1.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.8%

0.6% 

0.8% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

0.5% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

0.7% 

0.6% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

1.7% 

1.4% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

2.0% 

2.1% 

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.2%

0.2% 

0.5% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

79.2

74.0 

74.3 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 17

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-2.0 

-5.8 

Sep. 18

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.5% 

2.6% 

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.5% 

0.1% 

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-19.0 

-25.5 

 

13:30

USD

Current Account 

-126.0B 

-137.3B 

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

9.3B 

Sep. 19 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.800M 

0.811M 

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.765M 

0.746M 

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.56M 

4.47M 

Sep. 20 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.4 

46.0 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.3 

44.7 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.4% 

0.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7% 

2.8% 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-15 

-21 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 17 09:10 Slovakia

Sep 17 10:00 Norway 

Sep 18 08:30 Spain 

Sep 18 09:10 Greece 

Sep 18 09:30 Belgium 

Sep 19 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 19 09:30 Germany 

Sep 19 09:30 Portugal 

Sep 19 10:00 Norway 

Sep 20 08:30 Spain 

Sep 20 08:50 France 

Sep 20 09:30 UK 

Sep 20 09:50 France 

Sep 20 15:00 US 

Sep 20 17:00 US 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

 

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest:   114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest:   67.17 on May 25, 2010

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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