EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 9, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

09:30     GBP      Industrial Production (MoM)     0.2%     -0.6%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.                          

09:30     GBP       Manufacturing Production (MoM)     0.3%     -0.2%

Manufacturing Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 80% of overall Industrial Production. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

09:30     GBP       Trade Balance     -8.4B     -8.6B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.                          

12:00     GBP       Interest Rate Decision     0.50%     0.50%   

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.     

12:45     EUR        Interest Rate Decision     1.00%     1.00%

13:30     EUR        ECB Press Conference                                

The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR.     

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims     388K     367K                     

 13:30    USD      Continuing Jobless Claims     3525K     3437K     

Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 9, 2012, Forecast

EUR/CHF is priced at 1.2102 off the opening 1.2090. SNB’s Jordan yesterday tried to calm market concerns about the risk of a break of the 1.20 mark. Jordan stated that mangement changes have  not changed the SNB’s position on the minimum target and that the SNB will maintain the floor “from the moment the market opens in Sydney on Monday to when it closes in New York on Friday. The Swissie moved well away from the floor today. Unemployment reports came in at forecast, and there seems to be a possibility of an agreement in Greece, with the ECB willing to take a haircut on their holdings. The ECB has been adamant about not taking a loss on the face value of the bond, as they bought them to support the markets. Expect the pair to fall back towards the 1.20 mark as soon as some clarity comes on Greece and as the markets begin to focus elsewhere.

Wednesday’s economic reports ( actual )

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Feb 09  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 09  15:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23

Feb 09  16:00  US  Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16

Feb 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14

Feb 09  18:00  Italy   Auctions 30Y Bonds

Feb 10  11:00  Belgium  OLO auction