EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis May 30, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF popped to life today on statements and news from the SNB. In an article published by Bloomberg, states:

Jordan, speaking at the same event in Frankfurt as Weber, signaled that the SNB was running out of tools as the franc ascended to a record last year, which threatened export competitiveness and economic growth. The ceiling was “really the only effective option we had at that time available to combat the acute threat,” he said.

With the euro-area turmoil clouding Switzerland’s economic outlook and new Greek elections looming on June 17, Jordan has to remain vigilant, said David Kohl, deputy chief economist at Julius in Frankfurt.

“There’s a general increase in risk aversion,” he said. “It may well happen that some people out there might be tempted to test the SNB’s resolve. It’s a bit like poker — the SNB may have bad cards, but it has the deepest pockets.”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 29, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 29

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.6%

 

4.5% 

 

4.5% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

5.8%

 

6.3% 

 

10.3% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

6.9%

 

 

 

-9.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

21

 

-7 

 

-6 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

2.0% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CB Consumer Confidence 

64.9

 

70.0 

 

68.7 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

May 30

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

0.40

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

3.2%

8:30

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

1.4B

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

4.1%

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

-31

May 31

5:45

CHF

GDP q/q

0.1%

31st-3rd

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

0.8%

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

-2.9%

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

19K

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

2.6%

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

Jun 1

TBD

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

4.2%

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

46.9

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

43.8

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

50.5

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

10.9%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.0%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

0.3%

14:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

54.8

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

May 30  09:10  Italy

May 30  09:10  Sweden 

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