EUR/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction: News from the Euro and Swiss zone. EUR/CHF is frequently chosen for carry trades which involves going long a high-yielding currency (EURO – 3.50%) against a low-yielding one (CHF – 1.50%). Traders earn daily interest fees when holding this pair long (rollover fees). 

  • The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Swiss National Bank(SNB)
  • Swiss and Euro zone fundamentals

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF ended the week right where they started at 1.2011, as shown on the chart below.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 08, 2012

1.2011

1.2011

1.2013

1.2008

0.00%

Jun 07, 2012

1.2011

1.2010

1.2017

1.2009

0.01%

Jun 06, 2012

1.2010

1.2011

1.2013

1.2006

-0.01%

Jun 05, 2012

1.2011

1.2012

1.2014

1.2009

-0.01%

Jun 04, 2012

1.2012

1.2012

1.2012

1.2006

0.00%

The pair had an overall change of 0.00% and the trading range went from a high of 1.2017 to a low of 1.2006 as the SNB enforced the floor.

Recent figures released by the SNB of currency purchases in recent months surprised markets to see how much the SBN had to invest to protect the Franc.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 4 – 8 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 5

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.6

53.5

GBP

Construction PMI

54.4

54.5

55.8

Jun 6

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1.00%

1.00%

1.00%

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

303.8B

 

237.6B

Jun 7

CHF

CPI m/m

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

GBP

Services PMI

53.3

52.6

53.3

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

6.04|3.3

 

5.74|2.4

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

325B

325B

325B

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

USD

Unemployment Claims

377K

381K

389K

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.5%

-1.2%

-1.4%

Jun 8

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

-49.4B

-52.6B

 

Historical:

Highest: 1.5193 CHF on Oct 10, 2009.

Average: 1.3271 CHF over this period.

Lowest: 1.0083 CHF on Aug 9, 2011.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and CHF

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 11

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.9%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance

 

-19%

Jun 12

5:45

CHF

SECO Economic Forecasts

   

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

0.9%

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

0.1%

Jun 13

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

 

-0.1%

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.3%

Jun 14

7:30

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

7:30

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

   

7:30

CHF

SNB Press Conference

   

8:00

CHF

SNB Financial Stability Report

   

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

   

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

 

2.4%

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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