EUR/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

Posted June 09, 2012 8:19 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Introduction: News from the Euro and Swiss zone. EUR/CHF is frequently chosen for carry trades which involves going long a high-yielding currency (EURO – 3.50%) against a low-yielding one (CHF – 1.50%). Traders earn daily interest fees when holding this pair long (rollover fees).

The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Swiss National Bank(SNB)
Swiss and Euro zone fundamentals

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF ended the week right where they started at 1.2011, as shown on the chart below.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Jun 08, 2012	1.2011	1.2011	1.2013	1.2008	0.00%
Jun 07, 2012	1.2011	1.2010	1.2017	1.2009	0.01%
Jun 06, 2012	1.2010	1.2011	1.2013	1.2006	-0.01%
Jun 05, 2012	1.2011	1.2012	1.2014	1.2009	-0.01%
Jun 04, 2012	1.2012	1.2012	1.2012	1.2006	0.00%

The pair had an overall change of 0.00% and the trading range went from a high of 1.2017 to a low of 1.2006 as the SNB enforced the floor.

Recent figures released by the SNB of currency purchases in recent months surprised markets to see how much the SBN had to invest to protect the Franc.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 4 – 8 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Jun 5	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	53.7	53.6	53.5
Jun 5	GBP	Construction PMI	54.4	54.5	55.8
Jun 6	EUR	Minimum Bid Rate	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Jun 6	CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves	303.8B		237.6B
Jun 7	CHF	CPI m/m	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
	GBP	Services PMI	53.3	52.6	53.3
	EUR	Spanish 10-y Bond Auction	6.04\|3.3		5.74\|2.4
	GBP	Asset Purchase Facility	325B	325B	325B
	GBP	Official Bank Rate	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	USD	Unemployment Claims	377K	381K	389K
	GBP	PPI Input m/m	-2.5%	-1.2%	-1.4%
Jun 8	USD	Trade Balance	-50.1B	-49.4B	-52.6B

Historical:

Highest: 1.5193 CHF on Oct 10, 2009.

Average: 1.3271 CHF over this period.

Lowest: 1.0083 CHF on Aug 9, 2011.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and CHF

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Jun 11	6:45	EUR	French Industrial Production m/m		-0.9%
Jun 11	23:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance		-19%
Jun 12	5:45	CHF	SECO Economic Forecasts
	8:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m		0.9%
	14:00	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate		0.1%
Jun 13	7:15	CHF	PPI m/m		-0.1%
Jun 13	9:00	EUR	Industrial Production m/m		-0.3%
Jun 14	7:30	CHF	Libor Rate	<0.25%	<0.25%
	7:30	CHF	SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
	7:30	CHF	SNB Press Conference
	8:00	CHF	SNB Financial Stability Report
	8:00	EUR	ECB Monthly Bulletin
	9:00	EUR	CPI y/y		2.4%

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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