EUR/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 18-22, 2012, Forecast

Posted June 16, 2012 19:02 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Introduction: News from the Euro and Swiss zone. EUR/CHF is frequently chosen for carry trades which involves going long a high-yielding currency (EURO – 3.50%) against a low-yielding one (CHF – 1.50%). Traders earn daily interest fees when holding this pair long (rollover fees).

The interest rate differential between the European Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB)
Swiss and Euro zone fundamentals

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF ended the week at 1.2009 remaining in the same range since April 6th, when the SNB was forced to step in to defend the floor of 1.20. The pair have remained within a very tight range.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Jun 15, 2012	1.2009	1.2010	1.2013	1.2006	-0.01%
Jun 14, 2012	1.2010	1.2012	1.2021	1.2008	-0.02%
Jun 13, 2012	1.2012	1.2012	1.2012	1.2007	0.00%
Jun 12, 2012	1.2012	1.2011	1.2012	1.2007	0.01%
Jun 11, 2012	1.2011	1.2011	1.2018	1.2010	0.00%

Even with the risk aversion mode and the anti euro sentiment, the pair have remained stagnant.

With little in the way to support the euro and the line in the sand at 1.20 the pair will remain range bound, regardless of the results of the Greece elections and the overall EU financial situation.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic data for the week of June 11 – 15 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Jun 12	GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m	-0.7%	0.0%	0.9%
Jun 13	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%	0.1%	-0.3%
	USD	PPI m/m	-1.0%	-0.6%	-0.2%
	USD	Retail Sales m/m	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Jun 14	CHF	Libor Rate	<0.25%	<0.25%	<0.25%
	USD	Core CPI m/m	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	Unemployment Claims	386K	377K	380K
Jun 15	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	74.1	77.5	79.3

Historical:

Highest: 1.5193 CHF on Oct10, 2009.

Average: 1.3271 CHF over this period.

Lowest: 1.0083CHF on Aug 9, 2011.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Jun 18	Day 1	ALL	G20 Meetings
Jun 19	8:30	GBP	CPI y/y		3.0%
	9:00	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment		-2.4
	12:30	USD	Building Permits		0.72M
	Day 2	ALL	G20 Meetings
Jun 20	8:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-13.7K
	8:30	GBP	MPC Meeting Minutes	0-0-9	0-0-9
	16:30	USD	FOMC Statement
	18:00	USD	FOMC Economic Projections
	18:15	USD	FOMC Press Conference
Jun 21	8:30	GBP	Retail Sales m/m		-2.3%
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims		386K
	14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales		4.62M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index		-5.8
Jun 22	8:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate		106.9

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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