EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis August 10, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP  is trading at 0.7865 falling by 0.0033, again a surprise today. The euro continued to weaken, more on news flow and negative sentiment, whereas the UK as hit was a wider then expected trade balance, which had less of an impact on the sterling.

With the negative data from the UK along with a drop in growth and inflation estimates by the BoE yesterday, markets would have expected the GBP to decline. But once again, the thought of central bank money has supported the currency.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 9, 2012 actual v. forecast

Aug. 09

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

14.0K

 

10.0K 

 

-28.3K 

   

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.2%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

   

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.7% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.9%

 

-2.5% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

05:00

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.4%

 

20.5% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

 

9.8% 

 

9.5% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.1%

 

13.7% 

 

13.7% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-10.1B

 

-8.6B 

 

-8.4B 

 

 

 

13:15

 

CAD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

208.5K

 

213.0K 

 

222.1K 

   

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-1.8B

 

-1.0B 

 

-0.9B 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-42.9B

 

-47.5B 

 

-48.0B 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

 

370K 

 

367K 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3332K

 

3280K 

 

3279K 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US

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