EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis August 15, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7857 as the euro weakened against the GBP, after positive eco data supported the GBP today (see chart) and rumors of new stimulus to help the housing market, crept into the markets today. The BoE has been very busy over the past few months coming up with creative forms of helping the ailing economy.
Whereas Europe’s growth outlook is weak, inflation is falling and confidence is fragile ‐ not typically the formula for strong currency appreciation. Today’s releases included: Eurozone GDP, which came in as expected, falling ‐0.2%q/q and ‐0.4%y/y; while both German and French GDP came in higher than consensus they were both lower than Q1 at 0.3%q/q and 0.0%q/q, respectively. French inflation was slightly softer than expected, while German ZEW (business confidence) unexpectedly dropped to ‐25.5
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 14, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
Aug. 14 |
00:01 |
|
GBP |
|
|
RICS House Price Balance |
-24% |
|
-23% |
|
-22% |
|
|
|
00:50 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
-0.3% |
|
0.9% |
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
NAB Business Confidence |
4 |
|
|
|
-3 |
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
EUR |
|
|
French CPI (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
EUR |
|
|
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.0% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
07:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (QoQ) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
07:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (YoY) |
0.5% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
07:45 |
|
EUR |
|
|
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
08:15 |
|
CHF |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
-0.3% |
|
-0.2% |
|
-0.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.3% |
|
2.1% |
|
2.1% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.3% |
|
2.4% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.4% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-25.5 |
|
-19.3 |
|
-19.6 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.6% |
|
-0.7% |
|
0.9% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-21.2 |
|
-19.1 |
|
-22.3 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.8% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.8% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.8% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.7% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (YoY) |
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
0.7% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
|
2.3% |
|
2.6% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 15 |
12:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
7.4 |
||
|
13:00 |
USD |
55.0B |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
78.9% |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
0.4% |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
-3.7M |
||
|
Aug 16 |
9:00 |
CHF |
-42.5 |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.76M |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
361K |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.76M |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
-12.9 |
||
|
Aug 17 |
6:00 |
EUR |
-0.4% |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
10.9B |
||
|
13:55 |
USD |
72.3 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 15 09:10 Sweden
Aug 16 09:30 UK
Aug 16 15:00 US
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