EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis August 16, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP declined today, to trade at 0.7832 as the UK saw some positive eco news for a change.

The GBP is outperforming the EUR as the BoE’s minutes prove less dovish than expected and UK employment surprises higher. As expected the MPC vote on leaving both the bank rate and asset purchase program unchanged was unanimous; however the GBP positive surprise was that there was not even a discussion of a bank rate cut in the future.

In terms of the Olympic supported employment release, the data was substantially stronger than expected, with employment rising 201k 3m/3m, the unemployment rate falling to 8.0% and jobless claims falling ‐5.9k.

Whereas the euro zone’s debt woes are reviving with renewed vigor as the summer comes to an end. On August 20 Greece faces redemption of a 3.2 billion-euro bond held by the ECB. Note that the British pound may find support after we’ll see the first economic results of the London Olympics.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event 

actual

 

forecast

 

previous

   

Aug. 15

 

AUD

 

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

-2.50%

 

 

 

3.70% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ) 

1.0%

 

0.8% 

 

0.9% 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

 

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

8.20%

 

8.90% 

 

9.00% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-5.9K

 

6.0K 

 

1.0K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-5.8

 

6.5 

 

7.4 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.6% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

9.3B

 

63.0B 

 

55.9B 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event  

Forecast

Previous

Aug 16

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-42.5

 

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

2.4%

2.4%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.77M

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

365K

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-4.3

-12.9

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

0.4%

-0.4%

 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

7.8B

10.9B

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US 

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