EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis August 16, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 15, 2012 15:44 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
Add a comment

Category:

Fundamental Reports

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP declined today, to trade at 0.7832 as the UK saw some positive eco news for a change.

The GBP is outperforming the EUR as the BoE’s minutes prove less dovish than expected and UK employment surprises higher. As expected the MPC vote on leaving both the bank rate and asset purchase program unchanged was unanimous; however the GBP positive surprise was that there was not even a discussion of a bank rate cut in the future.

In terms of the Olympic supported employment release, the data was substantially stronger than expected, with employment rising 201k 3m/3m, the unemployment rate falling to 8.0% and jobless claims falling ‐5.9k.

Whereas the euro zone’s debt woes are reviving with renewed vigor as the summer comes to an end. On August 20 Greece faces redemption of a 3.2 billion-euro bond held by the ECB. Note that the British pound may find support after we’ll see the first economic results of the London Olympics.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Currency

Event

actual

forecast

previous

Aug. 15

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

-2.50%

3.70%

AUD

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

1.0%

0.8%

0.9%

TRY

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate

8.20%

8.90%

9.00%

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus

1.6%

1.8%

1.5%

GBP

Claimant Count Change

-5.9K

6.0K

1.0K

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

USD

Core CPI (MoM)

0.1%

0.2%

USD

CPI (MoM)

0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

-5.8

6.5

7.4

USD

CPI (YoY)

1.4%

1.6%

1.7%

USD

Core CPI (YoY)

2.1%

2.2%

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions

9.3B

63.0B

55.9B

USD

Industrial Production (MoM)

0.6%

0.5%

0.1%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Aug 16	9:00	CHF	ZEW Economic Expectations		-42.5
	9:00	EUR	CPI y/y	2.4%	2.4%
	12:30	USD	Building Permits	0.77M	0.76M
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	365K	361K
	12:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.76M	0.76M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	-4.3	-12.9
Aug 17	6:00	EUR	German PPI m/m	0.4%	-0.4%
	8:00	EUR	Current Account	7.8B	10.9B
	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.5	72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 16 09:30 UK

Aug 16 15:00 US

Want to read more articles like this one?

Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.

We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.

About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles