EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis August 7, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7958 as the Pound has continues to dip below a one-month low against the Euro after the currency was undermined by poor economic data out of the UK and the expectation that the European Central Bank will resume its bond buying plan. The UK is struggling in the grip of the double-dip recession and the Bank of England is expected to cut its growth forecast yet again later in the week.

Today the UK Halifax Housing Price Index came in under forecast again.

In Europe, traders are mellow after Monti had some worrisome words to say about the eurozone in a recent interview published this weekend.

Spain is expected to ask for a full bailout later today.

Traders have revised their opinion of ECB Draghi and their disappointment over his decision on Thursday, by Friday speculators were beginning to realize Draghi’s plans and have jumped on board to support his goals.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Aug. 06

 

AUD

 

 

 

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) 

0.2%

 

 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese CPI (YoY) 

2.46%

 

2.02% 

 

1.77% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 

-0.80%

 

 

 

-1.10% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-0.5% 

0.8%  

                               

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 7

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

364.9B

 

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

 

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production m/m

0.8%

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

1.2%

 

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.6%

 

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

-0.2%

Aug 8

5:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate

-8

 

9:30

GBP

BOE Inflation Report

 
 

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

1.6%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

-0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.3%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Aug 9

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

 
 

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.4B

 

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 07  00:30  Japan

Aug 07  09:15  Austria

Aug 07  14:30  UK

Aug 07  17:00  US

Aug 08  09:30  Germany

Aug 08  10:00  Norway

Aug 08  15:30  Italy

Aug 08  17:00  US

Aug 09  15:30  Italy

Aug 09  17:00  US

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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