EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis January 7, 2013, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP  gained 23pts to trade at 0.8125 as the euro plunged against the US dollar it was able to make gains against the GBP as markets were disappointed with shrinking Services PMI reporting below forecast and under the 50 line showing contraction. On the other hand the eurozone CPI printed above forecast giving the euro an extra bump. A WSJ article, suggesting that Spain has been using its Social Security Reserve Fund as the buyer of last resort for Spanish debt added to the downside pressure on EUR. Fundamental data included an as expected Eurozone services PMI print of 47.8 and a slightly higher than expected flash CPI release of 2.2%y/y.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data January 4, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jan. 04

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Unemployment Rate 

4.80%

 

4.90% 

 

4.80% 

 

 

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian Unemployment Rate 

10.6%

 

10.6% 

 

10.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Services PMI 

48.9

 

50.4 

 

50.2 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.1% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian Industrial Production

-1.0%

 

-0.8% 

 

2.5% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.3% 

  

 

 

CAD

 

 

Employment Change 

39.8K

 

5.0K 

 

59.3K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

155K

 

150K 

 

161K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.8%

 

7.7% 

 

7.8% 

  

 

 

CAD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.1%

 

7.0% 

 

7.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

 

34.4 

 

34.4 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

168K

 

148K 

 

171K 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Jan. 07

07:00

EUR

Finnish Trade Balance 

 

-0.23B 

 

08:00

EUR

Czech Construction Output (YoY) 

 

-4.30% 

 

09:30

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence 

-13.8 

-16.8 

 

10:00

EUR

PPI (MoM) 

0.1% 

0.1% 

 

15:00

USD

CB Employment Trends Index 

 

107.80 

 

 

 

 

 

 

           

Upcoming Government Bond

Date Time Country 

Tuesday, January 10: Austria will auction €1.3 billion ($1.7 billion) in 5- and 10-year bonds

Thursday, January 12: Spanish 3- and 5-year bond auction

Friday, January 13: Italy will auction medium-long term bonds

Thursday, January 19: France will auction 5-year bonds

Thursday, January 19: Spanish 10-, 15-, and 30-year bond auction

Thursday, January 26: Italian long-term bond auction

Monday, January 30: Italian medium-long term bond auction

Monday, January 30: Belgian bond auction

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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