EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis July 30, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7840. How does one describe a train wreck or predict a train wreck when both trains are on the same track.

The euro has skyrocketed on vows from ECB President Draghi to save the euro, without any plan of action and without any approvals; Mr. Draghi is going at this alone. Hip Hip Hooray for the man, at least after months of scalding the EU with no results, he is willing to put his money on the table, but already German is shouting NO NO Nine Nine… Is this more then what we got from the EU Finance Ministers back on June 29th with this plan to save the eurozone?

Compound that with the country that is deep in recession, on an austerity track, that seems to be making no progress. With global institutions warning them, of errors in their ways, what are Osborne and Cameron to do, now that the Queen’s Jubilee and the Olympics are behind.. Where are the jobs and growth coming from?

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 27

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.2%

 

1.2% 

 

3.6% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.43

 

1.25 

 

1.15 

  

 

 

SEK

 

 

 

Swedish Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

0.20% 

 

0.30% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

2.0% 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR and GBP

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Jul 30

30th-31st

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

0.8%

-0.6%

 

7:00

EUR

Spanish Flash GDP q/q

 

-0.3%

 

8:30

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

 

1.3B

 

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

 

42

 

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

 

-29

Jul 31

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

 

0.4%

 

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

 

7K

 

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

2.4%

 

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

11.1%

Aug 1

1st-8th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

1.0%

 

7:15

EUR

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

 

41.1

 

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

 

44.6

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

 

48.6

Aug 2

7:00

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change

 

-98.9K

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

 

6.2%

 

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

 

48.1

 

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

48.2

 

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

 

375B

 

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

 

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

  

Aug 3

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

51.3

 

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.6%

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 30  09:10  Italy  

Jul 30  10:00  Belgium

Jul 31  00:30  Japan

Jul 31  09:30  Belgium

Aug 01  09:30  Germany

Aug 01  10:00  Norway

Aug 01  13:00  US

Aug 02  08:30  Spain

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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