EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis July 31, 2012, Forecast

Posted July 30, 2012 14:53 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP followed the global markets today, with the euro dipping against its trading partners after two days of intervention by politicians last week pushing the euro on Thursday and Friday. Losses were limited by the weakness in the GBP after CBI data disappointed today.

Markets are waiting to see the response from the BoE, after dire warning were issued by the IMF a few weeks ago and the UK GDP release last week showed that the UK was deep in recessionary territory.

Thursday’s BoE meeting is the main event for GBP, though domestic PMI’s (Wednesday through Friday) and external factors should also provide for a considerable amount of movement. GBPUSD is currently trading at the upper end of its two month range, and further gains are likely to be challenging given concerns over BoE policy. The BoE acted last month, expanding its asset purchase program by £50bn, leading most market participants to believe that policy will remain unchanged

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for July 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

Currency

Importance

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul. 30

00:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM)

-0.1%

1.5%

-3.4%

02:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

2.8%

0.7%

10:20

EUR

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction

5.96%

5.82%

11:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR and GBP

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Jul 31	6:45	EUR	French Consumer Spending m/m		0.4%
	7:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change		7K
	9:00	EUR	CPI Flash Estimate y/y		2.4%
	9:00	EUR	Unemployment Rate		11.1%
Aug 1	1st-8th	GBP	Halifax HPI m/m		1.0%
	7:15	EUR	Spanish Manufacturing PMI		41.1
	7:45	EUR	Italian Manufacturing PMI		44.6
	8:30	GBP	Manufacturing PMI		48.6
Aug 2	7:00	EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change		-98.9K
	7:15	CHF	Retail Sales y/y		6.2%
	7:30	CHF	SVME PMI		48.1
	8:30	GBP	Construction PMI		48.2
	11:00	GBP	Asset Purchase Facility		375B
	11:00	GBP	Official Bank Rate	0.50%	0.50%
	11:45	EUR	Minimum Bid Rate	0.75%	0.75%
	12:30	EUR	ECB Press Conference
Aug 3	8:30	GBP	Services PMI		51.3
	9:00	EUR	Retail Sales m/m		0.6%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jul 31 00:30 Japan

Jul 31 09:30 Belgium

Aug 01 09:30 Germany

Aug 01 10:00 Norway

Aug 01 13:00 US

Aug 02 08:30 Spain

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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