EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 1, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP  is trading at 0.7967 with the euro gaining a bit after positive eco data releases. The pair declined following a morning of generally positive European data but weak UK Index of Services figures which registered a 0.1% against expectations of 1.5%. There is an element of negative risk sentiment this across markets following growing skepticism over the Spanish budget saw Spanish yields rise above the 6% level.  Sterling fell against the euro on Friday after investors gave a cautious welcome to Spain’s 2013 draft budget, although losses were expected to be capped by uncertainty over when the country may ask for a bailout.

Earlier in the session, an annual European Union farm subsidy payment to the UK, which involved around 3 billion euros of sterling-positive flows, kept euro gains in check. But market players said that, with that payment out of the way, many investors were cutting out of short euro positions.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 28, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 28

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.2% 

  

 

 

JPY

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.2%

 

4.3% 

 

4.3% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.4%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.3%

 

-0.5% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.8%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.4% 

  

 

 

CHF

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.67

 

1.57 

 

1.59 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.4% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

0.1% 

  

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.5% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Chicago PMI 

49.7

 

53.0 

 

53.0 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

78.3

 

79.0 

 

79.2 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 01

08:15

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY) 

5.0%

3.2%

 

08:30

CHF

SVME PMI 

47.0

46.7

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.8

49.6

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 10:00 Norway 

Oct 02 09:15 Austria 

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 02 09:30 UK 

Oct 02 14:30 UK 

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 03 10:00 Norway 

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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