EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2012 Forecast

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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2012 Forecast

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP moved upwards today, to trade at 0.8070 The cross turned higher annulling almost all of its two-day declines and opening the door for more upside risks. This leaves the possibility of a return to the 0.8112/19 levels on the cards. A clearance of here will open the door for a run at the 0.8154 level and then the 0.8200 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, support lies at the 0.8020 level where a violation will set the stage for a move further lower towards the 0.7950 level. Further support lies at the 0.7890 level. A cap is likely to occur and turn it higher. However, if here fails, further downside could develop further towards the 0.7811 level followed by its key support located at 0.7761. All in all, the cross remains biased to the in the short.

The euro continued to move higher throughout the day, but remained well within its recent range, while global equities advanced as eurozone optimism picks up ahead of the weekend. While the timing of a Spanish bailout remains highly uncertain, there is growing consensus that an aid request it is more likely than not after S&P downgraded Spain’s rating on Thursday. As such a request would trigger ECB bond buying program and lead to a further reduction in the eurozone bond yields, it could at least a near-term boost to the euro and most risk-sensitive assets.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 12, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 12

 

JPY

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

-1.9% 

   

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Industrial Production (YoY) 

2.7%

 

1.1% 

 

-0.2% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

 

-0.4% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

1.1%

 

0.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

1.8% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.3%

 

2.5% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.1

 

78.0 

 

78.3 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Oct. 15 

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.5%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia 

Oct 15 10:00 Norway 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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