EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 15, 2012 20:33 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8052 down a few pips. Expectations the BoE will undertake more monetary easing next month and the prospect of progress on a euro zone banking union and a Greek bailout at this week’s summit lifting the single currency.

A poll conducted by Reuters showed a majority of economists believe the BoE will increase its QE programme by another 50 billion pounds in November.

Spain remains the wild card. Spain has yet to request a bailout, and the IMF suggestion of a rescheduling of repayment terms for Greece has received mixed support. ECB President Draghi stated on October 4th that such an extension would amount to ‘monetary financing’. Sweden’s Finance Minister Borg has also renewed discussion of Greek exit, suggesting that such a development could occur over the next six months.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 15	GBP	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	3.5%		-0.6%
	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	1.8%	1.4%	-0.7%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	2.0%
	CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)	-3.6%	-3.6%	-3.5%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.6%	-1.3%	-1.3%
	TRY	Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate	8.40%	8.20%	8.00%
	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
	PLN	Polish CPI (YoY)	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.6%	1.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.8%	1.2%
	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-6.2	-4.5	-10.4

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 16	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.1%	2.0%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.8%	1.4%
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.7%	2.7%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-16.0	-18.2
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.5%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.7%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		67.0B
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-1.2%
Oct. 17	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus		1.5%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-15.0K
Oct. 18	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.4%	-0.2%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.1%	2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 16 08:30 Spain

Oct 16 09:10 Greece

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden

Oct 17 09:30 Germany

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal

Oct 17 10:00 Norway

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 08:30 Spain

Oct 18 08:50 France

Oct 18 09:30 UK

Oct 18 09:50 France

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 15:00 US

Oct 18 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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