EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8052 down a few pips. Expectations the BoE will undertake more monetary easing next month and the prospect of progress on a euro zone banking union and a Greek bailout at this week’s summit lifting the single currency.

A poll conducted by Reuters showed a majority of economists believe the BoE will increase its QE programme by another 50 billion pounds in November.

Spain remains the wild card. Spain has yet to request a bailout, and the IMF suggestion of a rescheduling of repayment terms for Greece has received mixed support.  ECB President Draghi stated on October 4th that such an extension would amount to ‘monetary financing’.  Sweden’s Finance Minister Borg has also renewed discussion of Greek exit, suggesting that such a development could occur over the next six months.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 15

 

GBP

 

 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

3.5%

 

 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

1.8%

 

1.4% 

 

-0.7% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

1.9% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-3.6%

 

-3.6% 

 

-3.5% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

-1.3% 

 

-1.3% 

 

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

8.40%

 

8.20% 

 

8.00% 

 

 

CHF

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish CPI (YoY) 

3.8%

 

3.9% 

 

3.8% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

 

0.6% 

 

1.0% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

 

0.8% 

 

1.2% 

 

 

USD

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-6.2

 

-4.5 

 

-10.4 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 16

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

2.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.1%

2.0%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.8%

1.4%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

2.7%

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-16.0

-18.2

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

67.0B

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

-1.2%

Oct. 17

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

 

1.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

 

-15.0K

Oct. 18

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.1%

2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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