EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 18, 2012 Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 18, 2012 Forecast

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 18, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP added another 22pips to trade at 0.8124. In the UK unemployment surprised traders and tumbled from 8.1% to 7.9% while claimant count also fell well below forecast, giving a huge boost of strength to the pound. Unfortunately a very strong euro stopped limited gains, as the euro surged on a weakening dollar as traders moved into more risk assets, after the US housing data showed a vast improvement in housing starts and building permits.

A mixed reading of BoE minutes reduced the move of the pound leaving traders undecided if the BoE will opt for additional QE next month.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 17, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 17

 

GBP

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.7%

 

1.6% 

 

1.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-4.0K

 

-1.0K 

 

-14.2K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Building Permits 

0.894M

 

0.810M 

 

0.801M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.872M

 

0.770M 

 

0.758M 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 18

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.1%

2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain           

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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