EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP  is trading at 0.8085 with sterling gaining the upper hand today. Sterling has advanced to its highest level in over three months against the euro on positive growth optimism and despite negative UK industrial data. The pound has rallied on optimism that the UK economy clawed its way out of recession in the third quarter, boosting demand for British assets and subsequently its currency.

Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey data showed a fall to -23 in October, down from -8 in September and lower than the expected -6 figure.

A Bloomberg survey suggests that UK GDP, which is officially announced tomorrow, grew by 0.6 percent in the previous quarter. 

While in Europe the local and overall PMI’s disappointing along with a slew of eco data for Germany disappointing traders

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 24

 

AUD

 

 

CPI (QoQ) 

1.4%

 

1.1%

 

0.5% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

49.10

 

 

 

47.90 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

43.5

 

44.0

 

42.7 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.7

 

48.0

 

47.4 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

100.0

 

101.5

 

101.4 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.3

 

46.6

 

46.1 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Current Assessment 

107.3

 

109.8

 

110.3 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Business Expectations 

93.2

 

93.7

 

93.2 

 

 

ZAR

 

 

South African CPI (MoM) 

0.90%

 

0.60%

 

0.20% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.560%

 

 

 

1.520% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-23

 

-6

 

-8 

 

 

USD

 

 

New Home Sales 

389K

 

385K

 

373K 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 25

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6% 

-0.4% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.8% 

-1.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

7.1% 

-13.2% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

388K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3255K 

3252K 

 

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

2.1% 

-2.6% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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