EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP  dipped today on the strong eco data in the UK to trade at 0.8042. The Pound has made gains on the day, but the forward move for Sterling has been less pronounced than might have been expected, given the spectacular nature of this morning’s growth numbers. Investors remain wary of the tried and tested market adage that ‘what should go up, and doesn’t go up, can only come down’.

GDP numbers came in well above forecast, although traders were expecting a better release. The euro had little supportive data today but fell against the USD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 25, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 25

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) 

-2.40%

 

-2.20% 

 

-2.60% 

 

 

SEK

 

 

Swedish Interest Rate Decision 

1.25%

 

1.25% 

 

1.25% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.4%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

2.0%

 

0.8% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

9.9%

 

7.1% 

 

-13.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

369K

 

370K 

 

392K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3254K

 

3255K 

 

3256K 

 

 

MXN

 

 

Mexican Trade Balance 

0.234B

 

-1.318B 

 

-0.979B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

2.1% 

 

-2.6% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 26 

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9 

5.9 

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.63 

1.67 

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

1.9% 

1.3% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.0 

83.1 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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