EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 5, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 04, 2012 17:19 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP reversed course as the euro gathered momentum to trade at 0.8045. Sterling fell to its lowest in two weeks against the euro on as soft UK data kept alive the prospects of more monetary stimulus in coming months.

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold and its quantitative easing program unchanged at the end of a two-day meeting on Thursday, but expectations are growing that it may have to ease policy as early as next month as the economy falters.

More bond buying or quantitative easing is usually negative for the currency as it increases the supply.

The European Central Bank also kept rates unchanged, with the euro buoyed by expectations Spain will soon need to seek a bailout. Comments from ECB Draghi after the meeting energized the euro.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 4, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 04	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	6.4%	4.7%	-21.2%
	AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.2%	0.4%	-0.8%
	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	0.2%	-0.4%
	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B	375B
	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	367K	370K	363K
	EUR	ECB Press Conference
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3281K	3271K	3281K
	CAD	Ivey PMI	60.4	59.0	62.5

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 05	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%
	11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	-0.5%	0.5%
	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.0%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	110K	96K
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.4
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	125K	103K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 05 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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