EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 5, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP  reversed course as the euro gathered momentum to trade at 0.8045. Sterling fell to its lowest in two weeks against the euro on as soft UK data kept alive the prospects of more monetary stimulus in coming months.

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold and its quantitative easing program unchanged at the end of a two-day meeting on Thursday, but expectations are growing that it may have to ease policy as early as next month as the economy falters.

More bond buying or quantitative easing is usually negative for the currency as it increases the supply.

The European Central Bank also kept rates unchanged, with the euro buoyed by expectations Spain will soon need to seek a bailout. Comments from ECB Draghi after the meeting energized the euro.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 4, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 04

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

6.4%

 

4.7% 

 

-21.2% 

 

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.8% 

 

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

 

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

 

0.50% 

 

0.50% 

 

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B

 

375B 

 

375B 

 

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

 

0.75% 

 

0.75% 

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

367K

 

370K 

 

363K 

 

EUR

ECB Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3281K

 

3271K 

 

3281K 

 

CAD

Ivey PMI 

60.4

 

59.0 

 

62.5 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 05

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-0.5% 

0.5% 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

110K 

96K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4 

34.4 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

125K 

103K 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country   

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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