EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis September 13, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8013 as the euro continues to gather strength against the crosses. There was little in the way to support the pound, except a mixed neutral employment report which showed a drop in claims. Markets were more reactive to the news from Germany where the Courts declared the ESM and ESFS legal.
Today is all about the upcoming FOMC meeting, as markets react and prepare for Mr. Bernanke tomorrow. No one is sure if and when the Feds will introduce stimulus or in what fashion or amount, so markets are a bit stand offish waiting to hear what the decision are.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Events forecast vs. actual September 12, 2012
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 12 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Unemployment Rate |
3.1% |
|
3.2% |
|
3.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
-0.8% |
|
-0.4% |
|
0.2% |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
1.60% |
|
|
|
-2.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French CPI (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
0.5% |
|
-0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian Industrial Production (YoY) |
0.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
-1.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
|
2.0% |
|
2.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.5% |
|
1.6% |
|
1.8% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Claimant Count Change |
-15.0K |
|
0.5K |
|
-13.6K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.6% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
1.4% |
|
-0.7% |
Upcoming Economic Events (today is the FOMC statement)
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sept 13 |
09:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
ECB Monthly Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
1.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
370K |
|
365K |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3318K |
|
3322K |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (YoY) |
1.4% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.5% |
|
|
|
|
17:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
|
0.25% |
|
|
|
|
17:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
FOMC Statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19:00 |
|
USD |
|
|
Federal Budget Balance |
-155.0B |
|
-69.6B |
|
|
|
|
19:15 |
|
USD |
|
|
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|
|
|
Government Bond Auctions
Date and Country
Sep 11 00:30 Japan
Sep 11 08:30 Holland
Sep 11 09:10 Greece
Sep 11 09:30 UK
Sep 11 14:30 UK
Sep 11 17:00 US
Sep 12 09:10 Italy
Sep 12 09:10 Sweden
Sep 12 09:30 Germany
Sep 12 09:30 Swiss
Sep 12 14:30 Sweden
Sep 12 17:00 US
Sep 13 00:30 Japan
Sep 13 09:10 Italy
Sep 13 09:30 UK
Sep 13 15:00 US
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