EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis September 4, 2012 Forecast

Posted September 03, 2012 14:26 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP dipped a bit today ahead of the ECB meeting on September 6th. The pair are trading at 0.7912 with light volume. The UK PMI surprised traders reporting above forecast, while all of the eurozone PMI came in below estimates, disappointing markets.

There was little action based on eco data though as most traders are more concerned with Mr. Draghi and Mr. Bernanke at the time being. Both the ECB and the BoE will be meeting on the 6th so it should be a fairly exciting day with both central banks expected to introduce new policies.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Actual versus Forecast Economic Releases. US and CAD markets are closed for a holiday

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 03

KRW

South Korean CPI (YoY)

1.2%

1.4%

1.5%

KRW

South Korean CPI (MoM)

0.4%

0.5%

-0.2%

JPY

Capital Spending

7.70%

8.90%

3.30%

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)

-0.7%

1.0%

-3.7%

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.8%

0.2%

1.2%

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

47.60

47.80

INR

Indian Trade Balance

-15.5B

-8.8B

-10.3B

CHF

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks

TRY

Turkish CPI (MoM)

0.56%

0.25%

-0.23%

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY)

3.2%

4.3%

3.3%

CHF

SVME PMI

46.7

49.0

48.6

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

43.60

45.00

44.30

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI

46.0

46.2

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI

44.7

45.1

EUR

Manufacturing PMI

45.1

45.3

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

49.5

46.2

45.2

Economic Highlights for the upcoming week… Tiers 3 keep your eyes on these

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 04	05:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.50%	3.50%
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	50.0	49.8
Sep. 05	02:30	AUD	GDP (QoQ)	0.8%	1.3%
	14:00	CAD	Interest Rate Decision	1.00%	1.00%
Sep. 06	02:30	AUD	Employment Change	5.0K	14.0K
	02:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.3%	5.2%
	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%
Sep. 07	15:00	CAD	Ivey PMI	58.0	62.8

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 04 00:30 Japan Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04 09:15 Austria Bond auction

Sep 04 09:30 Belgium Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04 14:30 UK Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05 09:30 UK 4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06 00:30 Japan Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction

Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction

Sep 06 09:10 Sweden I/L bond auction

Sep 06 15:00 US Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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