EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis September 6, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP climbed a bit today to trade at 0.7921. Tomorrow is the big day for the BoE and the ECB with both banks leaking their decisions to the news.

The BoE will maintain rates and continue their current programs. The ECB will introduce the bond buying program and other programs that Mr. Draghi is expected to detail tomorrow. There are mixed comments and problems facing the ECB and it will be a hard sell for Mr. Draghi.

Markets are expected to hold in a tight range until the official statements tomorrow.

Poor eco data in the eurozone continues to weigh on the euro and will most likely addressed after the ECB main event is over.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 05

 

AUD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

 

0.7% 

 

1.4% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.420%

 

 

 

1.420% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.2%

 

1.8% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 06

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.2% 

-1.7% 

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

0.50% 

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B 

375B 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

0.75% 

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

140K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

374K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3315K 

3316K 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

52.5 

52.6 

Sep. 07

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-24% 

-24% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.5% 

-2.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

2.0% 

-2.9% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

1.7% 

1.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.2% 

-2.4% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.8% 

-4.3% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

-0.9% 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

124K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5 

34.5 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

142K 

172K 

Government Bond Auction

 Date    Time   Country 

Sep 06 00:30 Japan 

Sep 06 08:30 Spain 

Sep 06 08:50 France 

Sep 06 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 06 15:00 US 

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30   Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US

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