EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis September 7, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7922 almost even to its opening after both central banks decisions today. The BoE did exactly as expected, holding rates and policy and therefore avoiding a public statement. There was nothing expected since the BoE is already easing monetary policy and is in the process of QE at this time.
Whereas the ECB held rates but embarked on a new “sterilized bond buying” program, which was already expected by the markets. On the whole the ECB was a disappointment doing only what was expected.
Market attention will now return to Greece, Spain, and Italy.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 6, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 06 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean GDP (QoQ) |
0.3% |
|
0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Employment Change |
-8.8K |
|
5.0K |
|
11.7K |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
|
5.3% |
|
5.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.7% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.2% |
|
-0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
0.5% |
|
0.2% |
|
-1.6% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
|
0.50% |
|
0.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
BOE QE Total |
375B |
|
375B |
|
375B |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.75% |
|
0.75% |
|
0.75% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
201K |
|
140K |
|
173K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
365K |
|
370K |
|
377K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
ECB Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3322K |
|
3315K |
|
3328K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
53.7 |
|
52.5 |
|
52.6 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 07 |
00:01 |
GBP |
-24% |
-24% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.5% |
-2.5% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
2.0% |
-2.9% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.7% |
1.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.2% |
-2.4% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-2.8% |
-4.3% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
-0.9% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
124K |
163K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
142K |
172K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 07 15:30 Italy
Sep 10 09:30 Germany
Sep 10 15:30 Italy
Sep 11 00:30 Japan
Sep 11 08:30 Holland
Sep 11 09:10 Greece
Sep 11 09:30 UK
Sep 11 14:30 UK
Sep 11 17:00 US
Sep 12 09:10 Italy
Sep 12 09:10 Sweden
Sep 12 09:30 Germany
Sep 12 09:30 Swiss
Sep 12 14:30 Sweden
Sep 12 17:00 US
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