EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – for the week of August 22, 2016 -Forecast

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Published: Aug 20, 2016, 07:06 UTC

The EUR/GBP ended the week on a strong note at 0.8659 soaring over 17% on a year to date basis. The pound remains weak ever since Brexit while the euro

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – for the week of August 22, 2016 -Forecast

The EUR/GBP ended the week on a strong note at 0.8659 soaring over 17% on a year to date basis. The pound remains weak ever since Brexit while the euro has been outperforming. The first official insight into consumer behavior following the 23 June poll indicated that sales rose by 1.4% in July after a 0.9% drop in June, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It was much stronger than the 0.2% increase predicted by economists in a Reuters poll but echoed industry reports of solid growth in consumer spending last month.

It is the latest evidence that Britain’s decision to leave the EU has had a limited impact on the UK economy in the immediate aftermath of the vote and will soothe fears of a recession later this year. But economists were quick to warn that the prospect of job cuts and of rising prices on the high street could see retailers’ fortunes change.

The UK could strike a trade deal with the European Union within two years but will struggle to win concessions on free movement of labour, according to one of Britain’s most experienced trade negotiators.

Roderick Abbott, a former EU ambassador to the World Trade Organization, thinks the UK might conclude a trade deal with Brussels in 24 months – a faster timetable than estimated by some European leaders, who have warned of talks stretching on for five years or more.

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Week of August 22-25, 2016

Date	Country	Name	Volatility	Previous
8/23/2016	GBP	Inflation Report	3
8/24/2016	EUR	GDP w.d.a (YoY)	3	1.8
8/24/2016	EUR	GBP s.a (QoQ)	3	0.4
8/24/2016	EUR	GDP n.s.a (YoY)	3	3.1