EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

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Published: Apr 28, 2016, 08:53 UTC

The EUR/GBP dipped 7 points to 0.7779 as both currencies traded on a strong note. Eurozone jobs data was better than expected while the pound gained on

EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

The EUR/GBP dipped 7 points to 0.7779 as both currencies traded on a strong note. Eurozone jobs data was better than expected while the pound gained on the weakness in the dollar and the easing of Brexit fears. The pound was weighed down during yesterday’s trading session by the publication of UK Gross Domestic Product data which revealed that, as anticipated, the pace of expansion in the domestic economy slowed during the first three months of this year. The euro staged a mini-comeback against the Pound yesterday, sending the GBP EUR exchange rate down from close to the 1.3000 threshold into the lower part of the 1.2800s.

A better than anticipated German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey helped the shared currency and data from the Teutonic Powerhouse economy could prove market-moving today; this afternoon’s German Consumer Price Index inflation data is a stand-out release from the euroland.

The German unemployment rate held steady at a record low in April, while the number of jobless showed the sharpest drop since January. A report in the Financial Times indicated that the rate of unemployment remained at 6.2 per cent, an all-time low. The unemployment rate has been below 10 per cent since 2007, a sharp contrast to many other eurozone countries, where unemployment has remained high since the crisis. The latest Eurostat data showed Spain’s unemployment rate at 22.1 per cent.

The number of jobless dropped by 16,000, handily beating expectations among economists of no change, and a significant improvement on the decline of 2,000 seen in March.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.25%	2.25%	2.25%
JPY	Household Spending (YoY) (Mar)	-5.3%	-4.2%	1.2%
JPY	Household Spending (MoM) (Mar)	0.5%	-0.3%	1.7%
JPY	Jobs/applications ratio (Mar)	1.30	1.28	1.28
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.0%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)	3.6%	2.9%	-5.2%
JPY	Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)	-1.1%	-1.5%	0.4%
JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPY	Interest Rate Decision	-0.10%	-0.10%	-0.10%
JPY	BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr)	4.9%	5.0%	5.7%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	German Unemployment Change (Apr)	-16K	4K	0K
EUR	German Unemployment Rate (Apr)	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Apr)		-0.2%	0.8%
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.7%	1.4%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		260K	247K

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, April 29, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Showa Day
NZD	Building Consents (MoM) (Mar)			10.8%
NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (Apr)			3.2
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q1)		0.2%	0.3%
AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Mar)		0.6%	0.6%
EUR	German Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)		0.3%	-0.4%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		0.9%	1.0%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate (Mar)		10.3%	10.3%
GBP	BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)		0.1%	0.1%
USD	Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)		0.2%	0.1%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Feb)		-0.1%	0.6%
CAD	RMPI (MoM) (Mar)		3.7%	-2.6%
USD	Chicago PMI (Apr)		53.0	53.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		80.2	79.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)		90.0	89.7
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			343