Advertisement
Advertisement

EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – February 10, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Feb 9, 2016, 13:14 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP added 13 points on mixed data released today. The pair is trading at 0.7769 after lackluster German production

EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – February 10, 2016

eurgbp tuesday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP added 13 points on mixed data released today. The pair is trading at 0.7769 after lackluster German production and trade balance figures weighed on the euro while the Trade balance printed in the green for the UK.  German industrial production dropped unexpectedly in December and exports were also down from November, suggesting that Europe’s largest economy ended 2015 on a weak note.

Industrial production, adjusted for seasonal swings and calendar effects, fell 1.2% from the preceding month, the economics ministry said Tuesday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.5% gain. Production data for November were revised to show a 0.1% monthly fall compared with the 0.3% drop previously reported.

Britain’s trade deficit with the rest of the world worsened in the fourth quarter and likely dragged on economic growth, despite improving in the month of December, official data showed on Tuesday.

The Office for National Statistics said Britain’s total trade deficit widened to 10.352 billion pounds in the fourth quarter from 8.575 billion pounds in the previous quarter, marking the biggest trade gap since the start of 2015.

Trade will likely appear as a drag on economic growth at the end of last year when revised figures for gross domestic product are released, the ONS said.

Finance minister George Osborne has warned that the economy was facing a “dangerous cocktail” of risks from overseas in 2016, as growth slows in major emerging markets, stock markets tumble and a slump in oil prices reduces demand from oil-exporting nations.

Sterling strength also acted as a headwind to exports for much of 2015, but it has fallen sharply over the last couple of months and on Monday hit a 13-month low.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
  China – Lunar New Year
  GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan) 2.6% 0.4% 0.1%  
  AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jan) 2 2 3  
  EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) -1.2% 0.4% -0.1%
  EUR German Trade Balance (Dec) 18.8B 20.2B 20.5B
  GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks        
  GBP Trade Balance (Dec) -9.92B -10.40B -11.50B
  GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec) -2.36B -2.60B -3.54B

 

eurgbp

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
  China – Lunar New Year
  USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock     3.837M  
  NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)   0.3% -0.2%  
  AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment   -1.0% -3.5%  
  AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)     -2.7%  
  GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)   -0.1% -0.7%  
  GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)   0.1% -0.4%  
  GBP NIESR GDP Estimate     0.6%  
  USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies        
  USD Crude Oil Inventories   3.933M 7.792M  
  USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks        
  USD Federal Budget Balance (Jan)   45.0B -14.0B

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Feb 09 11:00 Netherlands Holds DSL auction

Feb 09 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

Feb 09 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 09 11:30 UK 0.125% 2026 Gilt linker auction

Feb 09 n/a UK Details of Gilt auction on Feb 17

Feb 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Feb 10 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn Mar 2018 Schatz

Feb 10 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on Feb 17

Feb 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Feb 11 N/A Italy Euro 4-5bn 30-yr syndicated bond auction

Feb 11 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 11 11:10 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Feb 11 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Feb 11 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Feb 11 n/a US Details of 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 18

Feb 12 11:10 France Details of bond auction on 18 Feb

 

About the Author

Did you find this article useful?

Advertisement