EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – May 3, 2016

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Published: May 2, 2016, 12:13 UTC

The EUR/GBP added 18 points as the euro outpaced the pound as both currencies are trading in the green. The pair is exchanging at 0.7861. A brace of data

EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – May 3, 2016

The EUR/GBP added 18 points as the euro outpaced the pound as both currencies are trading in the green. The pair is exchanging at 0.7861. A brace of data sets from the euroland this morning have pulled the euro in opposing directions.

Higher than anticipated Q1 Gross Domestic Product figures from the euro area helped the shared currency, but investors holding the single currency were alarmed to learn that, according to official statistics, deflation has returned to the eurozone this month.

On the final trading day of the April, the pound was on track for a second straight month of gains – the first time that has happened since late 2013. On a weekly basis, it was heading for its best performance since early March.

That was despite persistent concerns that a June 23 referendum will lead to a vote for Britain to leave the European Union, which most economists reckon would deal a blow to the British economy and currency. Bookmakers’ odds have consistently shown a vote for “Remain” the more likely outcome, with betting website Betfair putting the chances of a Brexit at around just 30 percent. Those odds, closely watched by investors, have lent support to the pound.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	China – Labor Day
	United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday
EUR	Manufacturing PMI (Apr)	51.7	51.5	51.5
USD	Manufacturing PMI (Apr)			50.8
USD	ISM Manufacturing Employment			48.1
USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)		51.5	51.8

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Constitution Day
AUD	Building Approvals (MoM) (Mar)		-3.0%	3.1%
CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)		49.9	49.7
AUD	Interest Rate Decision (May)		2.00%	2.00%
GBP	Manufacturing PMI (Apr)		51.2	51.0