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EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – May 31, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: May 30, 2016, 10:36 UTC

The EUR/GBP added 25 points to trade at 0.7627 as the euro recovered a bit in today’s session and the pound gave back some gains on the UK Summer holiday

EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – May 31, 2016

The EUR/GBP added 25 points to trade at 0.7627 as the euro recovered a bit in today’s session and the pound gave back some gains on the UK Summer holiday break. After sterling’s solid performance on this week’s foreign exchange markets, the British pound to euro exchange rate peaked at the best conversion level seen since the beginning of February 2016. That fairly limited expectation of a Brexit vote has helped the pound claw back some ground in recent days. On Tuesday, the pound was up 0.8 percent to a near-month following a poll showing the “remain” camp with a 13-point lead.

One of the main reasons being touted for the change in odds on Brexit has been a proliferation in the warnings against Brexit. The Bank of England, for one, has warned that an exit from the EU could plunge Britain into recession and weigh heavily on the pound.

Although there are a large number of diverse Eurozone ecostats due in the coming week, it seems likely that contributions from Germany and the Eurozone will have the greatest level of impact.

Movement is expected to come at the start of the week, when the Eurozone confidence stats for May will be released on Monday morning along with the German inflation rate data for the same month.

Following on from this news on Tuesday will be the German unemployment rate results for May, while the Eurozone-wide variant is expected to come a few hours afterward.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD ANZ Business Confidence (May)     6.2  
  AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr)   -3.0% 3.7%  
  AUD Current Account (Q1)   -19.5B -21.1B  
  AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Apr)   0.5% 0.4%  
  EUR CPI (YoY) (May)   -0.1% -0.2%  
  EUR Unemployment Rate (Apr)   10.2% 10.2%  
  USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr)   0.2% 0.1%  
  USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr)     1.6%  
  USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr)   0.6% 0.1%  
  CAD GDP (MoM) (Mar)   -0.1% -0.1%  
  CAD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)     0.2%  
  CAD GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q1)   2.9% 0.8%  
  USD S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY)   5.1% 5.4%  
  USD Chicago PMI (May)   50.6 50.4  
  USD CB Consumer Confidence (May)   96.0 94.2  

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

May 30 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Jun 01 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Jun 01 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 Bobl

Jun 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt

Jun 01 17:20 Sweden Announces details of bond auction on Jun 08

Jun 02 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Jun 02 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Jun 02 11:50 France Holds bond auction

 

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