The EUR/GBP actually dipped 1.02% this month as both currencies excelled for very different reasons. The pair is expected to continue to trade at this
The EUR/GBP actually dipped 1.02% this month as both currencies excelled for very different reasons. The pair is expected to continue to trade at this level throughout the current month. The pair is holding at 0.7843. The US President flew into the UK for a four-day visit last week and warned that Britain would be at the ‘back of the queue’ in any trade deal with the US after a Brexit vote.
David Cameron hoped the intervention would be decisive in the EU debate but a YouGov poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday found that the Brexit campaign has jumped three points since the last poll two weeks ago. (Mail Online)
It backs up other polls that suggested voters are rejecting Mr Obama’s strongly-worded warning of the consequences of Brexit. Retail FX traders recently turned net-short the British Pound and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves us in favor of buying into recent strength. Last week we warned that a substantive shift in trader positioning warned of a similarly significant change in trend. And indeed recent moves act as confirmation of the same.
On the final trading day of the April, the pound was on track for a second straight month of gains – the first time that has happened since late 2013. On a weekly basis, it was heading for its best performance since early March.
That was despite persistent concerns that a June 23 referendum will lead to a vote for Britain to leave the European Union, which most economists reckon would deal a blow to the British economy and currency.
The pair is expected to hold tight ahead of the referendum with Mario Draghi likely to try to talk down the euro which the ECB believes is well over rated and weighing on exports.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | ||||
Sunday, May 1, 2016 | ||||||||
05:00 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 50.4 | 50.2 | ||||
Monday, May 2, 2016 | ||||||||
05:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 49.7 | |||||
18:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 51.5 | 51.8 | ||||
Tuesday, May 3, 2016 | ||||||||
05:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 49.9 | 49.7 | ||||
08:30 | AUD | Interest Rate Decision (May) | 2.00% | 2.00% | ||||
12:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 51.2 | 51.0 | ||||
Wednesday, May 4, 2016 | ||||||||
02:45 | NZD | Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.9% | |||||
12:30 | GBP | Construction PMI (Apr) | 54.0 | 54.2 | ||||
16:15 | USD | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) | 200K | 200K | ||||
18:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 54.6 | 54.5 | ||||
18:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.999M | |||||
Thursday, May 5, 2016 | ||||||||
05:30 | AUD | Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 0.3% | |||||
12:30 | GBP | Services PMI (Apr) | 53.5 | 53.7 | ||||
Friday, May 6, 2016 | ||||||||
16:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) | 200K | 215K | ||||
16:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate (Apr) | 5.0% | 5.0% | ||||
Sunday, May 8, 2016 | ||||||||
06:20 | CNY | Trade Balance (USD) (Apr) | 29.86B | |||||
Tuesday, May 10, 2016 | ||||||||
05:30 | CNY | CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 2.3% | |||||
Wednesday, May 11, 2016 | ||||||||
12:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) | -1.1% | |||||
Thursday, May 12, 2016 | ||||||||
15:00 | GBP | Interest Rate Decision (May) | 0.50% | 0.50% | ||||
Friday, May 13, 2016 | ||||||||
16:30 | USD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 0.1% | |||||
16:30 | USD | PPI (MoM) (Apr) | -0.1% | |||||
16:30 | USD | Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -0.4% | |||||
Saturday, May 14, 2016 | ||||||||
09:30 | CNY | Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr) | 6.8% | |||||
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 | ||||||||
12:30 | GBP | CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 0.5% | |||||
Wednesday, May 18, 2016 | ||||||||
03:50 | JPY | GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | -0.3% | |||||
12:30 | GBP | Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar) | 1.8% | |||||
12:30 | GBP | Claimant Count Change (Apr) | 6.7K | |||||
13:00 | EUR | CPI (YoY) (Apr) | ||||||
Thursday, May 19, 2016 | ||||||||
05:30 | AUD | Employment Change (Apr) | 26.1K | |||||
12:30 | GBP | Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -1.3% |