EUR/GBP Monthly Fundamental Forecast October 2012

Posted October 01, 2012 6:37 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Outlook and Recommendation

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7958 towards the middle range of the month as strong UK data supported the GBP and worries about the EU ongoing financial problems in Spain and Greece weighed down the euro. Fundamentally weak, the British pound (GBP) benefits from its triple-A status and positive sentiment; nonetheless, we do not expect material gains from levels achieved in late September. The UK’s ties to Europe are a notable risk for GBP

Highest: 0.8115	Lowest: 0.7887	Difference: 0.0228	Average: 0.7990	Change %: 0.39

The most significant concerns from here are: 1) a further deceleration in the global growth outlook; 2) an escalation in the European crisis; 3) a drop in investor and business confidence; and 4) interventionary and reactive central bank policy

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Central Bank – The Bank of England

Date of next meeting or last meeting: Oct 04, 2012

Current Rate: 0.500%

Economic events for the month of October affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct 1	8:30	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	49.5	49.5
	14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	50.0	49.6
Oct 2	8:30	GBP	Construction PMI	50.0	49.0
Oct 3	8:30	GBP	Services PMI	53.1	53.7
	12:15	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	148K	201K
	14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	53.4	53.7
Oct 4	11:00	GBP	Asset Purchase Facility	375B	375B
	11:00	GBP	Official Bank Rate	0.50%	0.50%
	Tentative	GBP	MPC Rate Statement
	11:45	EUR	Minimum Bid Rate	0.75%	0.75%
	12:30	EUR	ECB Press Conference
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	371K	359K
	18:00	USD	FOMC Meeting Minutes
Oct 5	7:00	CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves		418.4B
	12:30	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	111K	96K
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.2%	8.1%
Oct 8	7:15	CHF	CPI m/m		0.0%
Oct 9	8:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m		3.2%
Oct 11	All Day	ALL	G7 Meetings
	12:30	USD	Trade Balance		-42.0B
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
Oct 12	12:30	USD	PPI m/m		1.7%
	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Oct 15	12:30	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m		0.8%
	12:30	USD	Retail Sales m/m		0.9%
Oct 16	8:30	GBP	CPI y/y		2.5%
	8:30	GBP	PPI Input m/m
	9:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment
	12:30	USD	Core CPI m/m
Oct 17	8:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change
	8:30	GBP	MPC Meeting Minutes
Oct 18	8:30	GBP	Public Sector Net Borrowing
	8:30	GBP	Retail Sales m/m
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Oct 19	14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales
Oct 24	7:00	EUR	French Flash Manufacturing PMI
	7:30	EUR	German Flash Manufacturing PMI
	8:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate
	14:00	USD	New Home Sales
	18:15	USD	FOMC Statement
Oct 25	12:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
	14:00	USD	Pending Home Sales m/m
Oct 26	8:30	GBP	Prelim GDP q/q
	12:30	USD	Advance GDP q/q		1.3%
Oct 30	14:00	USD	CB Consumer Confidence
Oct 31	12:15	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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