The EUR/GBP closed the month at 0.8495 and remains a strong buy in September. The pair saw a small gain of 0.31% for the month but is up over 15% year to
The EUR/GBP closed the month at 0.8495 and remains a strong buy in September. The pair saw a small gain of 0.31% for the month but is up over 15% year to date. The Brexit fallout on U.K. confidence and investment has been moderated by the lower-valued sterling which has buoyed the spending power of tourists and retail sales, alongside the ramped up monetary stimulus provided by the Bank of England. Activity in the Eurozone had been showing moderate growth. Nevertheless, it may be premature to expect that a strong and sustained turnaround in world trade is developing. June’s uptick in volumes followed three successive months of decline. Coupled with the tepid and uneven performance of prior months, the year-over-year growth in world trade volumes has remained unchanged over the past year. Recent revisions to the global exports and imports have tended to favor more downside than upside adjustments. And anecdotal evidence — seaborne container traffic and port activity in many regions, for example — remains on the softer side.
The dominating factor in the short term for the Eurozone economy is the benefit from lower commodity prices, which is buttressing households’ purchasing power and driving up consumption growth to 1¾% this year. Exports —helped in particular in 2015 by a cheaper euro— are also propping up growth, along with the further reduction in the pace of austerity in the currency union. The Eurozone economy is expected to achieve volume growth of 1½% in 2015 and that growth is even forecast to rise slightly to 1¾% in 2016. That is the good news and this is something that we should cherish. Seeing economic growth finally take off after years of indifferent growth, recession and political crises is extremely welcome.
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September Major Economic Events | ||||
Date | Country | Name | Volatility | Previous |
9/1/2016 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 52.6 |
9/1/2016 | USD | ISM Prices Paid | 3 | 55 |
9/2/2016 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls | 3 | 255 |
9/2/2016 | USD | Unemployment Rate | 3 | 4.9 |
9/6/2016 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 1.5 |
9/6/2016 | AUD | RBA Rate Statement | 3 | |
9/6/2016 | EUR | Gross Domestic Product Y | 3 | |
9/6/2016 | EUR | Gross Domestic Product Q | 3 | |
9/6/2016 | GBP | Inflation Report Hearings | 3 | |
9/7/2016 | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) | 3 | 0.3 |
9/7/2016 | CAD | BOC Rate Statement | 3 | |
9/7/2016 | CAD | BoC Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0.5 |
9/8/2016 | EUR | ECB Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0 |
9/8/2016 | EUR | ECB Monetary press conference | 3 | |
9/9/2016 | GBP | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3 | 2 |
9/13/2016 | GBP | Core Consumer Price Index Y | 3 | 1.3 |
9/13/2016 | GBP | Consumer Price Index Y | 3 | 0.6 |
9/15/2016 | AUD | Fulltime employment | 3 | -45.4 |
9/15/2016 | AUD | Part-time employment | 3 | 71.6 |
9/15/2016 | AUD | Employment Change | 3 | 26.2 |
9/15/2016 | AUD | Participation Rate | 3 | 64.9 |
9/15/2016 | AUD | Unemployment Rate | 3 | 5.7 |
9/15/2016 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0.25 |
9/15/2016 | GBP | BoE Asset Purchase Facility | 3 | 435 |
9/15/2016 | GBP | Monetary Policy Summary | 3 | |
9/15/2016 | USD | Retail control | 3 | 0 |
9/15/2016 | USD | Retail Sales – M | 3 | 0 |
9/15/2016 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos – M | 3 | -0.3 |
9/20/2016 | AUD | RBA Meeting’s Minutes | 3 | |
9/20/2016 | JPY | BoJ Press Conference | 3 | |
9/21/2016 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 3 | -0.1 |
9/21/2016 | JPY | BoJ Monetary Policy Statement | 3 | |
9/21/2016 | EUR | Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting | 3 | |
9/21/2016 | USD | FOMC Economic Projections | 3 | |
9/21/2016 | USD | Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement | 3 | |
9/21/2016 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0.5 |
9/21/2016 | USD | FOMC Press conference | 3 | |
9/22/2016 | NZD | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 2 |
9/26/2016 | USD | Durable Goods Orders | 3 | 4.4 |
9/26/2016 | USD | Durable Goods Orders CORE | 3 | 1.5 |
9/29/2016 | USD | Gross Domestic Product Annualized | 3 | 1.1 |
9/30/2016 | USD | Fed’s Yellen Speech | 3 |