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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis – May 2-6, 2016 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Apr 30, 2016, 10:53 UTC

The EUR/GBP gained a few points this week seeing a gain of 0.55% to trade at 0.7843. Growth in the UK, the largest European economy outside the euro area,

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis – May 2-6, 2016 – Forecast

The EUR/GBP gained a few points this week seeing a gain of 0.55% to trade at 0.7843. Growth in the UK, the largest European economy outside the euro area, slipped to 0.4 per cent in the first quarter, while growth in the US over the same period was just 0.5 per cent when the figure was annualized.

GDP in both economies has long passed pre-crisis levels, however, and unemployment rates are a little over half the proportions recorded for the single currency area.

The British government, which is facing an In/Out referendum on EU membership on June 23, until recently emphasized the UK’s status as the fastest growing economy in the G7 group of leading industrial nations. “As to UK, the difference is clear: Brexit worries are weighing on the UK but not on the Eurozone,” said Holger Schmieding, economist at Berenberg.

The Eurozone economy grew 0.6 per cent in the first quarter, helped by a surprisingly robust performance by France.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

eur gbp w

Major Economic Events for the week:

Time Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
Sunday, May 1, 2016
  CNY Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   50.4 50.2  
Monday, May 2, 2016
      United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday
      China – Labor Day
    CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)     49.7  
    EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   51.9 51.9  
    USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   51.5 51.8  
Tuesday, May 3, 2016
    Japan – Constitution Day
    CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   49.9 49.7  
    AUD Interest Rate Decision (May)   2.00% 2.00%  
    GBP Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   51.2 51.0  
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
    Japan – Greenery Day
    NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)     0.9%  
    GBP Construction PMI (Apr)   54.0 54.2  
    USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)   200K 200K  
    USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   54.6 54.5  
    USD Crude Oil Inventories     1.999M  
Thursday, May 5, 2016
      Japan – Children’s Day
    AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)   0.3%    
    GBP Services PMI (Apr)   53.5 53.7  
Friday, May 6, 2016
    USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)   200K 215K  
    USD Unemployment Rate (Apr)   5.0% 5.0%  
    CAD Employment Change (Apr)   -1.5K 40.6K  
    CAD Ivey PMI (Apr)     50.1

 

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Mar 02 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Mar 04

May 04 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

May 04 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 Bobl

May 04 11:50 France Holds bond auction

May 04 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on May 11

May 05 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

May 05 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

 

 

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