EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.8060 after closing last week at 0.8066 with hardly any movement. The pair bounded around throughout the week mostly in response to the downgrade by S%P and the growth forecast revisions by the IMF. The IMF revised forecasts for all of the eurozone downwards along with the UK.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 12, 2012

0.8060

0.8060

0.8088

0.8052

0.00%

Oct 11, 2012

0.8060

0.8035

0.8072

0.8023

0.32%

Oct 10, 2012

0.8034

0.8040

0.8062

0.8024

-0.07%

Oct 09, 2012

0.8040

0.8094

0.8099

0.8037

-0.67%

Oct 08, 2012

0.8094

0.8066

0.8096

0.8058

0.35%

Adding to the worries is Spain’s continued refusal to ask for a bailout from international lenders despite the terrible state of its finances. 

Economists’ forecasts for the UK have also been cut steadily this year and the third quarter is expected to show only minimal growth. And with the government doing little to spur growth, analysts say its deficit plans look tenuous. That in turn raised the risk of the UK losing its prized AAA credit rating.

Its top- notch credit rating had attracted safe-haven flows during the height of the euro zone crisis and provided solid support to the pound.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 8-12, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 08

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

0.3%

0.0%

 

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

-0.8%

1.2%

Oct. 09

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-15%

-20%

-18%

 

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

-0.5%

2.8%

 

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

-1.1%

-0.6%

3.1%

 

GBP

Trade Balance 

-9.8B

-8.5B

-7.3B

 

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-1.2%

-1.1%

-0.8%

 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.8%

 

0.1%

Oct. 10

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.700%

 

1.764%

Oct. 11

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0%

0.4%

 

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

2.1%

 

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

0.1%

0.7%

 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.1%

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.2B

-44.0B

-42.5B

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

339K

370K

369K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3273K

3275K

3288K

Oct. 12

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

-0.4%

0.6%

 

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.7%

 

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.1%

1.8%

2.0%

 

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.3%

2.5%

2.5%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.1

78.0

78.3

 

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

75.0B

42.0B

-191.0B

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 15

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

0.8%

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-5.0

-10.4

Oct. 16

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

2.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.1%

2.0%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.8%

1.4%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

2.7%

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-16.0

-18.2

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

67.0B

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

-1.2%

Oct. 17

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

 

1.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

 

-15.0K

 Oct. 18

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.1%

2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia 

Oct 15 10:00 Norway 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US

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