EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 06, 2012 10:48 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.8079 close to the top of the weekly trading range as the euro gathered strength on Thursday after Mr. Draghi’s press conference. On Friday investors were surprised by the US unemployment change and the revision upwards to prior months of jobs created. This sparked a rally as traders moved from the JPY and the USD into riskier assets. The GBP has been plagued by lackluster eco data, a quiet calendar and lack of action from the BoE this week, although the BoE held rates and policy this was expected.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Oct 05, 2012	0.8079	0.8041	0.8081	0.8032	0.47%
Oct 04, 2012	0.8041	0.8027	0.8052	0.8022	0.17%
Oct 03, 2012	0.8027	0.8005	0.8034	0.7996	0.27%
Oct 02, 2012	0.8005	0.7990	0.8018	0.7978	0.19%
Oct 01, 2012	0.7990	0.7945	0.8004	0.7944	0.58%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 1-5 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 01	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	5.9%	4.5%	2.9%
	CHF	SVME PMI	43.6	47.5	46.7
	EUR	Italian Manufacturing PMI	45.70	44.20	43.60
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	42.7	42.6	42.6
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	47.4	47.3	47.3
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	46.1	46.0	46.0
	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	48.4	49.3	49.5
	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	51.5	49.7	49.6
Oct. 02	GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM)	-0.4%	-0.3%	1.1%
	EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change	79.60K		38.20K
Oct. 03	GBP	Services PMI	52.2	53.1	53.7
	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	162K	143K	189K
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	55.1	53.2	53.7
Oct. 04	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	0.2%	-0.4%
	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B	375B
	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	367K	370K	363K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3281K	3271K	3281K
Oct. 05	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	-1.3%	-0.5%	0.3%
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	114K	113K	142K
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.4	34.4
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	104K	130K	97K

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 08	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)	0.3%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.9%	1.3%
Oct. 09	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-20%	-19%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	2.9%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-0.6%	3.2%
	09:30	GBP	Trade Balance	-8.5B	-7.2B
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-1.1%	-0.8%
Oct. 11	07:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%
	07:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)		0.7%
Oct. 12	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	0.6%

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Oct 08 09:10 Norway

Oct 08 15:30 Italy

Oct 09 08:30 Holland

Oct 09 09:30 UK

Oct 09 14:30 UK

Oct 09 17:00 US

Oct 10 09:10 Italy

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden

Oct 10 09:30 Germany

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden

Oct 10 17:00 US

Oct 11 09:10 Italy

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden

Oct 11 09:30 UK

Oct 11 15:00 US

Oct 11 17:00 US

Oct 12 09:30 Germany

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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