EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 10-14, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.

  • The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
  • European and UK economic data
  • Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP ended the week at 0.8006 climbing above the historical 79 level. This was the battle of the banks, this month again, with the BoE holding rates and policy, while Super Mario and the ECB introduced their all new Outright Monetary Transaction Bond Sterilization Buying program. Markets hailed Mr. Draghi for keeping his pledge to save the euro. This program is difficult and faces many problems in the next few months, but it is being viewed by traders as a positive step forward.

While the GBP had an interesting week with continued positive eco data. PMI reported above forecast, while all of the EU declined and then on Friday report after report was positive, with PPI soaring.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 07, 2012

0.8006

0.7928

0.8008

0.7927

0.98%

Sep 06, 2012

0.7928

0.7923

0.7946

0.7907

0.05%

Sep 05, 2012

0.7924

0.7900

0.7930

0.7887

0.29%

Sep 04, 2012

0.7901

0.7926

0.7943

0.7900

-0.32%

Sep 03, 2012

0.7926

0.7925

0.7934

0.7907

0.01%

 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 3-7, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 03 

08:15

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY) 

3.2%

4.3%

3.3%

 

08:30

CHF

SVME PMI 

46.7

49.0

48.6

 

08:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI 

43.60

45.00

44.30

 

08:50

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.0

46.2

46.2

 

08:55

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

44.7

45.1

45.1

 

09:00

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

45.1

45.3

45.3

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI 

49.5

46.2

45.2

Sep. 04

06:45

CHF

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.1%

0.2%

0.5%

 

08:00

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change 

38.20K

 

-27.80K

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.6

50.0

49.8

 

15:40

GBP

Services PMI 

53.7

51.5

51.0

Sep. 05

08:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.1%

-0.5%

 

10:00

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

10:35

EUR

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.420%

 

1.420%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.2%

1.8%

1.6%

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.5%

1.5%

1.7%

Sep. 06 

08:00

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.4%

0.3%

-0.7%

 

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.5%

0.2%

-1.6%

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B

375B

375B

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

0.75%

0.75%

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

201K

140K

173K

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

365K

370K

377K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3322K

3315K

3328K

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.7

52.5

52.6

Sep. 07

06:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate 

2.9%

2.9%

2.9%

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

2.9%

1.5%

-2.4%

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

3.2%

2.0%

-2.9%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

2.0%

1.7%

0.4%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.4%

1.2%

-2.4%

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-0.8%

-2.8%

-3.8%

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.3%

0.2%

-0.4%

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

96K

125K

141K

 

13:30

USD

Unemployment Rate 

8.1%

8.3%

8.3%

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

34.5

34.4

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

103K

138K

162K

 

15:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.2%

 

0.3%

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 11

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-22% 

-24% 

 

09:30

GBP

Trade Balance 

-9.0B 

-10.1B 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.2B 

-42.9B 

Sep. 12 

06:30

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

 

-0.4% 

 

07:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.3% 

0.3% 

 

07:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0% 

2.0% 

 

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.6% 

1.6% 

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

0.5K 

-5.9K 

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.1% 

-0.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.3% 

-0.6% 

Sep. 13

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

-0.4% 

-0.3% 

Sep. 14

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.6% 

2.6% 

 

10:00

EUR

Employment Change (QoQ) 

 

-0.2% 

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.7% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

Sep 13 00:30 Japan 

Sep 13 09:10 Italy  

Sep 13 09:30 UK 

Sep 13 15:00 US 

Sep 13 17:00 US 

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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