EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 17-21, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.

  • The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
  • European and UK economic data
  • Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP ended the battle at 0.8096 as the euro was able to surge on a week of positive fundamentals. With the ECB kicking off the week with the Outright Monetary Transaction program followed by the ruling from the German Constitutional Court upholding the legality of the EFSF and the ESM leading into the FOMC announcements of the new QE3 program in the US.

There was little in the way of supportive data in the UK although most of the more recent eco prints were on the positive side.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 14, 2012

0.8096

0.8044

0.8115

0.8038

0.65%

Sep 13, 2012

0.8044

0.8010

0.8047

0.7990

0.42%

Sep 12, 2012

0.8010

0.7996

0.8028

0.7970

0.18%

Sep 11, 2012

0.7996

0.7980

0.8006

0.7968

0.20%

Sep 10, 2012

0.7980

0.7994

0.8011

0.7977

-0.18%

This week the EU Finance Ministers continue their discussions with Spain and Greece as the troika continues to try to find a way to resolve issues in Greece.

The GBP will face retail sales, industrial trends and CPI.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 10-14, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 11

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-19%

-22% 

-23% 

 

06:30

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.1%

-0.1% 

-0.1% 

 

09:30

GBP

Trade Balance 

-7.2B

-9.0B 

-10.1B 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-42.0B

-44.0B 

-41.9B 

 Sep. 12

06:30

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

0.7%

0.5% 

-0.4% 

 

07:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.3% 

0.3% 

 

07:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

2.0% 

2.0% 

 

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.5%

1.6% 

1.8% 

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

-15.0K

0.5K 

-13.6K 

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

-0.1% 

-0.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.7%

1.4% 

-0.7% 

 

18:00

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.764%

 

1.680% 

 Sep. 13

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.5%

-0.4% 

-0.3% 

 

08:30

CHF

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

0.00% 

0.00% 

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2% 

0.4% 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.7%

1.1% 

0.3% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

382K

370K 

367K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3283K

3318K 

3332K 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.4% 

0.5% 

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.5%

2.6% 

2.5% 

 

17:30

USD

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

0.25% 

0.25% 

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-191.0B

-155.0B 

-69.6B 

Sep. 14

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

2.6% 

2.6% 

 

10:00

EUR

Employment Change (QoQ) 

0.0%

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

1.7% 

1.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.8%

0.6% 

0.8% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

0.5% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

0.7% 

0.6% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

1.7% 

1.4% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

2.0% 

2.1% 

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.2%

0.2% 

0.5% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

79.2

74.0 

74.3 

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 17

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-2.0 

-5.8 

Sep. 18

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.5% 

2.6% 

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.5% 

0.1% 

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-19.0 

-25.5 

 

13:30

USD

Current Account 

-126.0B 

-137.3B 

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

9.3B 

Sep. 19 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.800M 

0.811M 

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.765M 

0.746M 

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.56M 

4.47M 

Sep. 20 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.4 

46.0 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.3 

44.7 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.4% 

0.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7% 

2.8% 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-15 

-21 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 17 09:10 Slovakia

Sep 17 10:00 Norway 

Sep 18 08:30 Spain 

Sep 18 09:10 Greece 

Sep 18 09:30 Belgium 

Sep 19 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 19 09:30 Germany 

Sep 19 09:30 Portugal 

Sep 19 10:00 Norway 

Sep 20 08:30 Spain 

Sep 20 08:50 France 

Sep 20 09:30 UK 

Sep 20 09:50 France 

Sep 20 15:00 US 

Sep 20 17:00 US 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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