EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 24-28, 2012 Forecast

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Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.

  • The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
  • European and UK economic data
  • Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP fell below the 0.80 price on Friday to close at 0.7998 as the EUR/GBP has maintained its 35 pip range into the US session which has no significant economic data scheduled. Reports of a Spain/EU deal to implement internal fiscal and economic reforms in exchange for a bailout package caused some market movement during the European session.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 21, 2012

0.7998

0.7998

0.8008

0.7976

0.00%

Sep 20, 2012

0.7998

0.8044

0.8046

0.7988

-0.57%

Sep 19, 2012

0.8044

0.8032

0.8059

0.8018

0.15%

Sep 18, 2012

0.8032

0.8071

0.8072

0.8022

-0.48%

Sep 17, 2012

0.8071

0.8084

0.8102

0.8061

-0.16%

The euro fell to a 9-day low versus the sterling after a European Commission spokesman said Spain’s government and the EU are in close contact over a package of reforms but denied that the new measures will serve as the basis for an official aid request from the EFSF/ESM. 

Greece and the troika could not reach terms for the continued funding of the bailout as the representatives left Greece. New says that there will be no final agreement at the Oct EU summit and that final talks will be delayed until after the US elections.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 17-21, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 17

GBP

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-2.4%

 

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-10.4

-2.0

-5.8

Sep. 18

GBP

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

2.2%

2.3%

 

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.5%

2.5%

2.6%

 

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.5%

0.5%

0.1%

 

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-18.2

-19.0

-25.5

 

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-3.8

-16.5

-21.2

 

USD

Current Account 

-117.4B

-125.5B

-133.6B

 

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

67.0B

45.3B

9.3B

Sep. 19  

USD

Building Permits 

0.803M

0.796M

0.811M

 

USD

Housing Starts 

0.750M

0.765M

0.733M

 

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.82M

4.55M

4.47M

Sep. 20 

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

42.6

46.4

46.0

 

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

47.3

45.3

44.7

 

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

46.0

45.4

45.1

 

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

-0.4%

0.3%

 

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7%

2.7%

2.3%

 

EUR

Spanish 10-Year Obligation Auction 

5.666%

 

6.647%

 

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-8

-15

-21

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

382K

375K

385K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3272K

3300K

3304K

 

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-1.9

-4.0

-7.1

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 24

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.3

102.3

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

110.9

111.2

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

95.0

94.2

Sep. 25

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.9

 

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

62.0

60.6

Sep. 26

01:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.4%

 

01:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.1%

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

5

-3

Sep. 27 

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

6.8%

 

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change 

10K

9K

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-12.4B

-11.2B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.5%

-0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5%

-0.5%

 Sep. 28 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

-0.2%

0.1%

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.55

1.57

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 24 09:10 Norway 

Sep 24 09:30 Germany 

Sep 24 10:00 Belgium 

Sep 24 15:30 Italy  

Sep 25 08:30 Holland 

Sep 25 08:30 Spain 

Sep 25 09:10 Italy  

Sep 25 14:30 UK 

Sep 25 17:00 US 

Sep 26 09:10 Italy  

Sep 26 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 26 09:00 Germany 

Sep 26 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 26 17:00 US 

Sep 27 00:30 Japan 

Sep 27 09:10 Italy  

Sep 27 17:00 US

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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