EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 3-7, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 02, 2012 5:05 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.

The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
European and UK economic data
Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP bounced around all week on the strength of the EUR. There was not much action for the GDP after the revision upwards last week. The BoE was quiet and data was sparce as markets focused on the Jackson Hole speech by Mr. Bernanke and the upcoming meeting of the ECB.

There was little in political and news from the EU except for more disappointing eco data and rumors that Chancellor Merkel was trying to get Spain and Italy to hold off on requesting bailouts.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Aug 31, 2012	0.7930	0.7924	0.7956	0.7916	0.08%
Aug 30, 2012	0.7924	0.7917	0.7936	0.7902	0.09%
Aug 29, 2012	0.7917	0.7943	0.7946	0.7906	-0.33%
Aug 28, 2012	0.7943	0.7917	0.7954	0.7907	0.33%
Aug 27, 2012	0.7917	0.7914	0.7929	0.7902	0.04%

The pair spent the week reacting to the strength and weakness of the euro and global market sentiment.

With the ECB meeting this week, all eyes will be focus on Mr. Draghi now that Mr. Bernanke is finished.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Tier 1 and 2 Economic Releases for August 27-31, 2012

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Aug. 27	SEK	Swedish Retail Sales (MoM)	0.30%	0.20%	-0.30%
	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	102.3	102.6	103.2
	EUR	German Current Assessment	111.2	110.8	111.5
	EUR	German Business Expectations	94.2	95.0	95.5
Aug. 28	AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	-5.6%		2.8%
	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.9	5.9	5.9
	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	60.6	66.0	65.4
Aug. 29	AUD	Construction Work Done (QoQ)	-0.2%	1.0%	7.8%
	CHF	KOF Leading Indicators	1.57	1.50	1.41
	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%
	USD	GDP (QoQ)	1.7%	1.7%	1.5%
	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	2.4%	1.0%	-1.4%
	USD	Beige Book
	NZD	Building Consents (MoM)	2.0%	3.0%	5.7%
Aug. 30	JPY	Retail Sales (YoY)	-0.8%	-0.2%	0.2%
	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	-17.3%	-5.0%	-1.0%
	AUD	Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ)	3.4%	2.4%	7.7%
	EUR	German Unemployment Change	9K	8K	9K
	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
	CAD	Current Account	-16.0B	-15.0B	-10.2B
	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	374K	370K	374K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3316K	3307K	3321K
Aug. 31	KRW	South Korean Industrial Production (YoY)	0.3%	0.5%	1.4%
	JPY	Unemployment Rate	4.3%	4.3%	4.3%
	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)	-0.5%	-0.6%	-0.6%
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.2%	1.7%	0.4%
	GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM)	1.3%	0.1%	-0.8%
	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.5%	2.4%
	EUR	Unemployment Rate	11.3%	11.3%	11.3%
	CAD	GDP (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
	USD	Chicago PMI	53.0	53.5	53.7
	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	74.3	73.6	73.6

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

Economic Highlights for the upcoming week… Tiers 3 keep your eyes on these

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 04	05:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.50%	3.50%
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	50.0	49.8
Sep. 05	02:30	AUD	GDP (QoQ)	0.8%	1.3%
	14:00	CAD	Interest Rate Decision	1.00%	1.00%
Sep. 06	02:30	AUD	Employment Change	5.0K	14.0K
	02:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.3%	5.2%
	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%
Sep. 07	15:00	CAD	Ivey PMI	58.0	62.8

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 03 09:10 Norway Bond auction

Sep 03 10:00 Belgium OLO auction

Sep 04 00:30 Japan Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04 09:15 Austria Bond auction

Sep 04 09:30 Belgium Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04 14:30 UK Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05 09:30 UK 4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06 00:30 Japan Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction

Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction

Sep 06 09:10 Sweden I/L bond auction

Sep 06 15:00 US Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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