EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 3-7, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.

  • The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
  • European and UK economic data
  • Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

 The EUR/GBP bounced around all week on the strength of the EUR. There was not much action for the GDP after the revision upwards last week. The BoE was quiet and data was sparce as markets focused on the Jackson Hole speech by Mr. Bernanke and the upcoming meeting of the ECB.

There was little in political and news from the EU except for more disappointing eco data and rumors that Chancellor Merkel was trying to get Spain and Italy to hold off on requesting bailouts.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Aug 31, 2012

0.7930

0.7924

0.7956

0.7916

0.08%

Aug 30, 2012

0.7924

0.7917

0.7936

0.7902

0.09%

Aug 29, 2012

0.7917

0.7943

0.7946

0.7906

-0.33%

Aug 28, 2012

0.7943

0.7917

0.7954

0.7907

0.33%

Aug 27, 2012

0.7917

0.7914

0.7929

0.7902

0.04%

The pair spent the week reacting to the strength and weakness of the euro and global market sentiment.

With the ECB meeting this week, all eyes will be focus on Mr. Draghi now that Mr. Bernanke is finished.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks. 

Tier 1 and 2 Economic Releases for August 27-31, 2012

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 27

SEK

Swedish Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.30%

 

0.20% 

-0.30% 

 

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.3

 

102.6 

103.2 

 

EUR

German Current Assessment 

111.2

 

110.8 

111.5 

 

EUR

German Business Expectations 

94.2

 

95.0 

95.5 

Aug. 28

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

-5.6%

 

 

2.8% 

 

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

 

5.9 

5.9 

 

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

60.6

 

66.0 

65.4 

Aug. 29

AUD

Construction Work Done (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

1.0% 

7.8% 

 

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.57

 

1.50 

1.41 

 

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

0.4% 

 

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

1.5% 

 

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

2.4%

 

1.0% 

-1.4% 

 

USD

Beige Book 

 

 

 

 

 

NZD

Building Consents (MoM) 

2.0%

 

3.0% 

5.7% 

Aug. 30

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.8%

 

-0.2% 

0.2% 

 

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-17.3%

 

-5.0% 

-1.0% 

 

AUD

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

3.4%

 

2.4% 

7.7% 

 

EUR

German Unemployment Change 

9K

 

8K 

9K 

 

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

0.2% 

 

CAD

Current Account 

-16.0B

 

-15.0B 

-10.2B 

 

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

0.0% 

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

374K

 

370K 

374K 

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3316K

 

3307K 

3321K 

Aug. 31

KRW

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

0.3%

 

0.5% 

1.4% 

 

JPY

Unemployment Rate 

4.3%

 

4.3% 

4.3% 

 

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.6% 

-0.6% 

 

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.2%

 

1.7% 

0.4% 

 

GBP

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.1% 

-0.8% 

 

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.5% 

2.4% 

 

EUR

Unemployment Rate 

11.3%

 

11.3% 

11.3% 

 

CAD

GDP (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

0.1% 

 

USD

Chicago PMI 

53.0

 

53.5 

53.7 

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.3

 

73.6 

73.6 

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

 

Economic Highlights for the upcoming week… Tiers 3 keep your eyes on these

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 04

05:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50% 

 

3.50% 

 

 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

50.0 

 

49.8 

 

 

Sep. 05

02:30

AUD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.8% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

14:00

CAD

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

Sep. 06

02:30

AUD

Employment Change 

5.0K 

 

14.0K 

 

 

 

02:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate 

5.3% 

 

5.2% 

 

 

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

 

0.50% 

 

 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

 

0.75% 

 

 

Sep. 07

15:00

CAD

Ivey PMI 

58.0 

 

62.8 

   

Government Bond Auction

Date  Time  Country 

Sep 03  09:10  Norway  Bond auction

Sep 03  10:00  Belgium  OLO auction

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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