Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY dipped 10 points as the Japanese yen traded on a positive note and the euro continued to weaken ahead of the ECB
The EUR/JPY dipped 10 points as the Japanese yen traded on a positive note and the euro continued to weaken ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. Yesterday’s eco data from Germany was mixed with inflation holding but retail sales tumbled weighing heavily on the euro. The pair is trading at 129.98 at the bottom of its recent trading range.
Bank of Japan’s governor has dismissed calls from critics to go slow on hitting the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target and stressed the need to take “whatever steps necessary” to achieve its ambitious consumer price goal. Various policymakers in Japan, including BOJ board members, have recently warned that pushing up prices too quickly could hurt consumption and have called for the central to give itself more time to achieve its inflation target. However, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reinforced the need to reinflate prices as a central bank priority. On the other side the ECB is about to mount a huge stimlus program set to be announced this week as well as dips to interest rates and higher deposit fees.
The ECB is expected to add further stimulus at Thursday’s meeting. In contrast, the Federal Reserve has signalled a strong inclination to raise U.S. rates this month. Traders said only a disastrous payrolls report on Friday could set back such a move.
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Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct) |
3.9% |
-2.3% |
2.3% |
|||
AUD |
Current Account (Q3) |
-18.1B |
-16.5B |
-20.5B |
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JPY |
BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks |
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CNY |
Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
49.6 |
49.8 |
49.8 |
|
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CNY |
Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
53.6 |
|
53.1 |
|
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CNY |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
48.6 |
48.3 |
48.3 |
|
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CNY |
Caixin Services PMI (Nov) |
|
53.1 |
52.0 |
|
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AUD |
Interest Rate Decision (Dec) |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
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AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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AUD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.7% |
0.2% |
|
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AUD |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
2.3% |
2.0% |
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USD |
FOMC Member Brainard Speaks |
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GBP |
Construction PMI (Nov) |
|
58.2 |
58.8 |
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EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
|
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
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EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
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USD |
FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks |
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USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
|
190K |
182K |
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USD |
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks |
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USD |
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
2.2% |
1.6% |
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USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
1.1% |
1.4% |
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USD |
FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks |
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USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|
-1.125M |
0.961M |
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USD |
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks |
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USD |
Beige Book |
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USD |
FOMC Member Williams Speaks |
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Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Dec 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.75bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt
Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec
Dec 03 10:30 Spain 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono
Dec 03 10:50 France
Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.7bn 1%
Dec 07 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 09 Dec
Dec 07 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 Dec
Dec 08 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction
Dec 08 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction
Dec 09 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Dec 09 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction
Dec 09 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Dec 2017 Schatz
Dec 09 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction
Dec 10 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction
Dec 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus