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EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 26, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY is trading at 130.52 as the yen eased as safe haven trades backed off and the Japanese yen reacted to comments

EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 26, 2015 – Forecast

eurjpy wednesday bnsnla
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY is trading at 130.52 as the yen eased as safe haven trades backed off and the Japanese yen reacted to comments from the BoJ monetary policy minutes released this morning.  The minutes from the Bank of Japan’s October 30 meeting have just been released and, in short, it seems the central bank appeared more keen to maintain stability rather than shake things up.

Leading into that meeting, expectations were high that the BoJ would expand the size of its asset purchase programme from its current pace of Y80tn a year. But policymakers held fire, and did so again at another meeting this month.

The BoJ said “the underlying trend in inflation had been improving steadily, judging from developments in the output gap and inflation expectations”, but added “most members concurred that, as for monetary policy for the immediate future, it was important for the Bank to maintain and steadily pursue the current policy.”

Policymakers noted there were some positives about the domestic economy, including a resilient consumer and an improving labour market. That presented a reason for holding off on extra stimulus in October. But some areas, like exports and industrial production were just treading water. Furthermore, the Bank noted that developments in overseas economies were skewed to the downside.

President Barack Obama and French President François Hollande held a joint news conference around midday to discuss the response to the Paris terror attacks.

The joint statement “alleviated in part any lingering concerns regarding the West’s reaction to terrorist events” which, along with the jump in oil prices in a week otherwise marked by low trading volumes, helped push the market higher, said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

2.600M

-0.200M

-0.482M

 

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3)

-3.6%

-2.1%

2.1%

   

  GBP

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals

 

45.5K

44.5K

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks 

 

 

 

   

 

eurjpy

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 26, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Thanksgiving Day

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct)

 

-937M

-1,222M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)

 

-3,370M

-3,200M

 

 

  AUD

 

Private New Capital Expenditure

 

-3.0%

-4.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec)

 

9.2

9.4

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN

Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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