EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 15, 2012 5:42 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY declined in early trading to hit 101.44 as the euro weakens once again on Spain.

Investor’s tire of Spain’s dalliance with seeking a bailout, and as the EU’s economy threatens to slow down. Global markets have been waiting for Spain to formally request a bailout as it faces mounting fiscal deficits. It will be a major topic at a European Union summit at the end of this week. That uncertainty has left investors cold on risk-sensitive assets and prompted them to seek so-called safe havens such as government bonds and the JPY.

The weekends provided traders surprisingly positive China trade data (see below). However, the reaction is somewhat muted in early Asia. News headlines are likely to focus on the EU summit later in the week and the US fiscal cliff, but there is little new.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 13

CNY

Chinese Trade Balance

27.70B

20.40B

26.66B

CNY

Chinese M2 Money Stock

14.8%

13.6%

13.5%

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 15

GBP

Rightmove House Price In

3.5%

-0.6%

AUD

Home Loans (MoM)

1.8%

1.4%

-0.7%

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (M

4.7%

4.3%

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY)

1.9%

1.9%

2.0%

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY)

-3.6%

-3.6%

-3.5%

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM)

0.3%

0.4%

0.6%

CNY

Chinese FDI

-3.40%

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM)

-1.6%

-1.3%

SGD

Singaporean Retail Sales

3.2%

0.6%

-2.9%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 16	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.7%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		67.0B
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-1.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 16 08:30 Spain

Oct 16 09:10 Greece

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden

Oct 17 09:30 Germany

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal

Oct 17 10:00 Norway

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 08:30 Spain

Oct 18 08:50 France

Oct 18 09:30 UK

Oct 18 09:50 France

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 15:00 US

Oct 18 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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