EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis September 11, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY is trading above 100.00 at 100.04 at this writing, as the JPY has weakened on negative eco data released this morning. GDP Q/Q fell below forecast along with the Current Account. (See chart below).

The euro has been strong since the ECB announced its new Outright Monetary Transaction bond buying program, gaining on the USD to trade over 1.28 on Friday.

Over the weekend, China begin its monthly data dump printing all of its eco data at one time, the overall view of the releases shows that the economy has not picked up and that manufacturing and production remain weak, supporting the notion of stimulus from the PBoC.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Economic Data September 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Sep. 10

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.34T

 

0.39T 

 

0.77T 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP Price Index (YoY) 

-0.9%

 

-1.1% 

 

-1.1% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

Bank Lending (YoY) 

0.9%

 

 

 

0.7% 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

26.66B

 

19.80B 

 

25.10B 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Exports (YoY) 

2.70%

 

3.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

0.1% 

 

1.0% 

 

Chinese Economic Data released on September 9, 2012 actual v. forecast ( this is important )

Sep. 09

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.0% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-3.5%

 

-3.3% 

 

-2.9% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.2%

 

20.4% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

8.9%

 

9.1% 

 

9.2% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.2%

 

13.2% 

 

13.1% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 11

00:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

 

-5.7 

 

02:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.7B 

-42.9B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

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