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EUR/JPY Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Apr 28, 2016, 03:44 UTC

The EUR/JPY tumbled 2.42 points to trade at 123.80 as the Japanese yen soared after a slew of data hit the wires and the Bank of Japan decision. The Bank

EUR/JPY Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

The EUR/JPY tumbled 2.42 points to trade at 123.80 as the Japanese yen soared after a slew of data hit the wires and the Bank of Japan decision. The Bank of Japan held rates and policy surprising the markets and giving the yen a leg up. WSJ printed that in a new quarterly forecast released in the day, the BOJ essentially shifted back its forecast date for achieving its 2% inflation target by a half year. The new forecast calls for 2% to be reached between April 2017 and March 2018. It represents the fourth time in a year for the bank to push back the target.

Fifty-six per cent of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict more stimulus Thursday. Of the 41 respondents, 19 predict the BOJ will announce an increase in ETF purchases, eight expect an acceleration of bond purchases and eight project a deeper cut in the negative rate on excess reserves. Some 93 per cent of economists forecast further easing by the end of July. (Financial Review)

Inflation is hovering around zero and price expectations aren’t rising. Corporate Japan is winding back its estimates for price growth as confidence in the economy wanes. The preliminary results of spring wage talks, which Kuroda said he would be watching, have shown the pace of increases to be slower than last year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD Interest Rate Decision  2.25% 2.25% 2.25%  
  JPY Household Spending (YoY) (Mar)  -5.3% -4.2% 1.2%  
  JPY Household Spending (MoM) (Mar)  0.5% -0.3% 1.7%  
  JPY Jobs/applications ratio (Mar)  1.30 1.28 1.28  
  JPY National Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)  -0.3% -0.2% 0.0%  
  JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)  -0.3% -0.3% -0.3%  
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)  3.6% 2.9% -5.2%  
  JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)  -1.1% -1.5% 0.4%
  JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement        
  JPY Interest Rate Decision  -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%  
  JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)        
  GBP Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr)   5.0% 5.7%  
  JPY BoJ Press Conference        
  EUR German Unemployment Change (Apr)   4K 0K  
  EUR German Unemployment Rate (Apr)   6.2% 6.2%  
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr)   -0.2% 0.8%  
  USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   0.7% 1.4%  
  USD Initial Jobless Claims   260K 247K

 

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, April 29, 2016

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
  Japan – Showa Day
  NZD Building Consents (MoM) (Mar)     10.8%  
  NZD ANZ Business Confidence (Apr)     3.2  
  AUD PPI (QoQ) (Q1)   0.2% 0.3%  
  AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Mar)   0.6% 0.6%  
  EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)   0.3% -0.4%  
  EUR Core CPI (YoY)   0.9% 1.0%  
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   0.4% 0.3%  
  EUR Unemployment Rate (Mar)   10.3% 10.3%  
  GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks        
  USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)   0.1% 0.1%  
  USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)   0.2% 0.1%  
  CAD GDP (MoM) (Feb)   -0.1% 0.6%  
  CAD RMPI (MoM) (Mar)   3.7% -2.6%  
  USD Chicago PMI (Apr)   53.0 53.6  
  USD Michigan Consumer Expectations   80.2 79.6  
  USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)   90.0 89.7  
  USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count     343

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Apr 28 11:10 Italy Eur 2.25bn 0.45% 2021 BTP

Apr 28 19:00 US Usd 15bn 2yr FRN notes & Usd 28bn 7yr notes

Mar 02 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Mar 04

May 04 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

May 04 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 Bobl

May 04 11:50 France Holds bond auction

May 04 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on May 11

May 05 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

May 05 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

 

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